NVX Fundamental Analysis - a multi MULTI bagger, page-222

You're going to have to explain how you believe the macro conditions will result in the current SP nearly halving. A hunch doesn't cut it.

I would love you to be right, truly, but it took a sustained bot attack to get the SP to where it is now. For the SP to break through this support level it would require something massive. E.g. A herculean effort of shorters, possibly combined with a massive economic shock and some negative news out of NVX.

With regard to the massive shock, that's not likely in the next quarter. Inflation is way too high but coming down at a faster rate than expected now. As of yesterday the Fed said it expects rates to only inch up to 5.1% by the end of 2023 before starting to come back down - and they have an interest in hawkish projections. The very shitty macro economic conditions are now well known and well discussed. The likelihood is suddenly turns waaaay worse is very low.

With regard to NVX's news, only a month ago NVX told us that they're going to smash their previous forecasts. Their investor presentations have for years stated Greenfield #1 will get them to 40ktpa in 2025. Greenfield #1 is now going to bring their total production to 85ktpa(!) I understand that the market isn't confident or literate enough to appreciate the enormity of this news now, but there are still some smart investors out there doing their bit to push the SP down so they can accumulate like a gremlin at the current wildly cheap prices. NVX are doing a hop-step to 85ktpa instead of just jumping up to 40ktpa because the demand is punching them in the face.