uranium may have hyper price run, page-21

Hi bubwell

Thanks for pointing out the typo. I apologise if the innocent typo influenced anyone's decision making in share purchases(LOL). Also I apologise for not reading your thread contribution more carefully. My statements & questions was really encapsulated in your statements & questions. A most recursive thread this is.

What I did not read more closely, the second time, is the paragraph:

"The world uses 67,000 tons of mined uranium a year. At current usage, this is equal to about seventy years of supply. The World Nuclear Association says demand is projected to grow by 33 percent in the next decade to correspond with a 27 percent projected growth in nuclear reactor capacity. However, more efficient nuclear reactors, such as "fast-reactor" technology, could extend those supplies by more than two thousand years. Experts say spent fuel can be reprocessed for use in reactors but currently is less economical than new fuel. Currently, there are nearly one thousand commercial, research, and ship reactors worldwide; more than fifty are under construction, and 130 are in planning stages."

The above paragraph says it is uneconomical to reprocess at the moment. From my understanding this means price of uranium oxide is too low as compared to cost of reprocessing. This is bearish for uranium oxide price. Not good at all.

I have not got an answer to your question which involves a timeline into the future. I cannot make such guesses. What occupies my mind is the above paragraph. When the price of Uranium oxide rises it comes to a point where it is worthwhile to reprocess. Then as demand increases and capacity constraints in reprocessing come in and then price of uranium starts again to rise.

As I cannot answer your question on supply & demand projections all the way out to 2014. I do know there are two milestones to watch for. The market price for reprocessing and the capacity of plants for reprocesssing. I have not been watching both but I believe http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspx gives an answer in the sense that monitoring of conversion prices will give an indication when uranium oxide prices are rising in the future. Just remember I am no expert in this field to interpret the relationship between the the price of uranium oxide and the price of UX conversion. I fall into these traps all the time.

I also have an opinion that as it is no doubt cheaper to reprocess plutonium(ex nuclear warheads) to mox fuels; this will over shadow price of uranium oxide for a long time into the future(imo). A double negative for the future price of uranium oxide. Two major -ves in one HC thread. I will think twice before leaping into speculative uranium miners.

The wild card in my mind is the energy efficiency or energy ratio of all these processes. That is the ratio of energy out over energy into system. Energy is what we all want out of nuclear industry but all these processes outside of nuclear reactor take up energy which diminishes the energy ratio. Now I am getting extremely speculative and this is where all these subsidies by governments come into play to sustain the nuclear industry.

I know people will jump on me when I sound bearish & skeptical but from my point of view all the world's energy supply is subsidised by the most efficient which is coal & oil. These processes have the highest energy ratio. As price of energy goes up an adjustment period & process starts which will affect cost of reprocessing spent fuel(U3O8). This makes all the reprocessing less attractive and though I have no facts to support my assertions it is a major threat after peak oil kicks in. Now I am getting really speculative. DYOR


Sorry bubwell if my bantering does not help. At least I am better informed and will be more careful in my assertions about nomenclature in nuclear chemistry.

wbddrss