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Ann: GMD: Second Supplementary Bidder's Statement, page-18

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20/12/22

13:16

Post #: 65382390
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Originally posted by RooBendigo: ↑

Here is what I understand, I hope someone jumps in if it is wrong:

So long as the offer is open, and for four months after is has closed, you can't do worse than those who have already accepted. GMD have to give you the same deal if they want to own 100% of DCN. It is possible GMD shares will go up enough for that to be OK for some holders. The CEO of GMD will work hard for a higher GMD share price because he has a gazillion options at around $1 which will make him a fortune if GMD shares go higher and stay there, so the horse named self-interest will be running hard.

Alternatively, I can't see Kin Delphi handing over 10% for so little. If Hoover have to buy the remaining 20 + % later in 2023 whatever Kin / Delphi can squeeze them for will also have to be paid to remaining shareholders. Kin Delphi can hand them 90%, but in a second offer (after 4 months) Hoover would have to get 75% of the remaining 20% of shares, in other words they would have to make an offer Kin / Delphi would accept but also have to offer enough for the about half the DCN holdouts to accept ... basically they would need 95% acceptance before they could compulsorily acquire.. So you could wait ... Hoover will be cashed up, and they really need full ownership of DCN. You will have something they want badly.

If I am right about the 2nd scenario, there is reasonable possibility DCN will be in better shape, if they can get mill feed on good terms. Given they want feed from March quarter 2023 and whoever provides that feed will have to sort out a mining crew, they will have to announce something soon. So far as I can tell GMD do not have ore which can be mined by then ... 2024 financial year at the earliest. So Kin or someone else at least to start with. If DCN is making money from its mill, and can sort out its costs and mining plan, it could be back on track and worth a lot more by the time Hoover tries to buy the remaining shares. That would be good for "they will have to take them from my cold dead hands" DCN holdouts.

My opinion is the GMD marketing experts have tried to create a sense of inevitability about the takeover. Personally I don't like the hype. But, I don't have DCN shares, and I have been around long enough to have been wrong a lot.

(You might be thinking: what if Hoover take Kin over, and get to 90% of DCN that way? If that was a plan really weird that SBM's Kin shares go to Phoenix and not Hoover House. And Kin is 35/% owned by Delphi who seem to have deep pockets and patience. Kin would not be another easy takeover mark for GMD imho.)

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perhaps but after 4 months DCN might raise consolidate and do a small parcel buy back to mop a few more up and raise some capital and then the number change away KIN favour!!!!

DCN Price at posting: 10.3¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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Ann: GMD: Second Supplementary Bidder's Statement, page-18

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