Interesting situation with today's ASX releases on the Strike-Warrego and Hancock tussle by Hancock.
I would have thought maybe one of Hancock's advisors on Hancock aim to have a position in the North Perth Basin to secure gas for their mineral operations would advise the following Machiavellian strategy:
1. Strike have upped their bid for Warrego. Hancock not to overbid Strike price, but bag the Strike offer with today's release. The usual hand wringing.
2. The new 'higher ' bid price for Warrego by Strike, lets Hancock off the hook for buying Warrego shares.
3. The money that Hancock would have thrown at Warrego take over can then be diverted to Hancock making a cash bid for Norwest.
4. Why bid for Norwest? Well 20% of a lot of gas- 2.5tcf+plus upside with well funded operator Minres is better than 50% of a lot less with a fractious operator competing to take over Warrego. Can't see the Strike/Warrego JV being a happy JV now and down the road if Hancock did manage to take over Warrego.
5. A cash takeover bid for Norwest is good for Minres as they make a huge profit on their 1.3 billion shares with cost base of ~ 1 cent per Norwest share. This profit can go towards paying for coming Minres costs of drilling, 3D, production facilities etc. Minres have form here in selling a major shareholding position for a profit- Pilbara Minerals sale.
6. Minres get a JV partner with deep pockets removing the future JV funding 'nuisance value' of current Norwest share structure. Subsequent arrangements can be made re disposal of gas for Norwest/Hancock and Minres. Both companies are desirous of gas for their mineral processing ops.
7. If Minres go along with a Hancock takeover of Norwest, then Minres shareholder interests aligned with all Norwest shareholders and Minres will aim to maximise their share holding profit by extracting the highest bid price than can be achieved from Hancock.
8. ALL Norwest shareholders are then happy campers.
Of course all the above is left field speculation regards Hancock.
But as other posters have alluded, the above strategy from the Minres point of view could be apply to any other serious player. For example replace Hancock with Santos as the bidder for Norwest.
We all know that Ellison and Gallagher of Santos seem to get along as Gallagher was going to go on the board of Minres until major Santos shareholders spat the dummy on this happening. Santos also need more gas to shore up their sales contracts.
We as Norwest shareholders do live in interesting times and should thank Ellison for putting Norwest into play. A good Christmas present indeed, should the Minres bid shake a major player out of the bushes in the near future with a cash bid for Norwest, obviously way in excess of 6 cents.
The next three months will be very interesting and exciting for all Norwest shareholders imho.
I am a top 10 shareholder and NOT accepting the Minres 'kick the tyres' offer.
Risk in everything of course. DYOR.
NWE Price at posting:
6.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
