IVZ Speculation time
In IVZ's case: the company will do a trading halt whether its good or bad news. I will explain my thoughts on why below.
88E on the other hand, did not do a trading halt for its Merlin-2 Well (failure to obtain a fluid sample) announcement.
23 March: Merlin-2 Well reaches total depth
30 March: Wireline logging results (announcing failure - no Trading halt).
This is because the well and the project as a whole was pretty much entirely deemed a failure and totally abandoned
The reason i think IVZ will do a trading halt even if its bad news, is because:
Scott has mentioned that its extremely rare for a wildcat first well to actually find hydrocarbons (which IVZ did) - and then its even more rare for that same first wildcat well to actually make a discovery (obtain a fluid sample). I believe he was implying that there is still potential to make a discovery even if they aren't able to with this first well (and there will be many more wells to come).
TLDR: its not a binary black/white anymore based on the findings to date - they're going to keep at it even in the event of a failure to obtain a sample in this well (one of the webinars he was saying something along the lines of everything is present / a working hydrocarbon system with all elements required - and that this is already extraordinary kind of a thing, and the main thing is collecting as much data as they can from this first well) etc etc.
TLDR2: i think if they weren't able to obtain a sample, he wants to make it clear about the future potential/activities and what they've achieved so far. And then obviously move on to talk about Baobab (which is the next fully funded, to my understanding, drilling campaign)
The Trading Halt announcement:
"The Company will be providing an update in relation to results from the Mukuyu-1 sidetrack wireline logging programme, formation pressure and fluid sampling and the Company is expecting to announce an update to the market on or prior to the commencement of trading on 29 December 2022."
Pros:
Mention of fluid sampling results (indicating they got fluids - which kind of means a discovery will be declared + moveable hydrocarbons confirmed)
Cons:
Why didn't the announcement say "trading halt - the company will be providing an update in relation to a material hydrocarbon discovery" or something like that (mentioning a discovery)
Counter argument: Scott historically has never been pumpy, so this does match his style (leaving you guessing)
The mention of fluid sampling does not necessarily guarantee they were able to obtain fluid samples.
------So i talked about the Bearish case above, now lets move on to the bullish case:
-Trading halt to announce fluid sample results and a discovery declared
-Long trading halt to give time to the president to prepare an event to announce this to the world/ his people
-Announcement will also move on to talk about "String of Pearls” - which i believe is referencing the other 12 (i think its 12) plays in the same system / tenament. They include: Baobab, Msasa, Mahogany, Machabel, Musuma, Mopane, Mukwa, Mimosa, Mukamba, Marula, Acacia, Munondo & Kigelia. (i think these are in the newly acquired acerage which they were adamant to get last year if you remember, and eventually got them)
A discovery in Mukuyu will increase the potential success for these other plays which are in the same system, and this can lead to something substantial. I believe they were of the thought that some of the hydrocarbons in Mukuyu have moved into Baobab (i forgot the official term, but sometimes over time, hydrocarbons escape an area and move into another). So this might be something he will talk about - potentially very exciting stuff
Other thoughts:
If the announcement made reference to a discovery, i would be buying with every penny i had on the OTC US market tonight (apparently they dont halt). On the flip side, is that the reason why no mention of a discovery was made in the announcement title? Its a tricky one. Because refer to bearish case above, and nothing is yet confirmed!
Some other peoples thoughts:
poinmas: Pretty sure everyone is overthinking it. I think they called a trading halt as soon as they picked up formation testing tools.
Ok-GeodesRock49:Just a thought - when an exploratory well encounters hydrocarbons, and then sidetracked to obtain a more perfect well bore, and the original well bore had open-hole logs and geological samples of live light oil and the mudlogs had elevated gases, then there are only two choices to make. The results of the sidetrack ... "providing an wireline logging programme, formation pressure and fluid sampling" completes the evaluations of both well bores. Choice #1: Run and cement casing and suspend the well for future testing when completion equipment can be transported to the location. Choice #2: Plug and abandon.
IMHO -- Choice #1 will occur ... or not!
-----------------Enjoy going crazy speculating and thinking about this for the next 6 days!
