wednesday trading, page-21

Sometimes I think a beginner's view of the market is more valid than an experts.

What does the beginner do? Sees that the market is going up and buys.

What does the more experiences trader do? Listen to other 'guru's' like the Laundry's, McLaren's, Ferrera's and other experienced opinions (like some here on HC), study TA and all other aspects of the market in order to make better financial decisions.

Now there is nothing wrong with that but the guru's main prediction is of the next 'turn date'. It will be for all sorts of reasons, like the moon, the sun, Armstrong's pie, what happened last year, what happened in 1932, Gann's squares, Venus and Mercury, so many calender days since x etc.

Whether the trend is up or down, they (or we) are all trying to pick the turn date. Isn't that like trying to pick the top or bottom? We all know that's more a game than a trading strategy as the odds are heavily against.

So while the experienced trader patiently waits for 'that next turn date' or plays it when time comes, the beginner is just following the trend.

Now we know the guru's will be right eventually. All markets have tops and bottoms. But they are more often wrong because picking an exact turn date is like.... well.... predicting the future.

So beginner's luck will often get you better results than the most impressive guru around.

It ends here though, the beginner will make his dumb money and assume that's what will happen all the time, confidence beaming.

When the market turns, the beginner will usually hold all the way and sell near the bottom.

Keeping it simple works with everything in life and trading is no different.

Don't get me wrong, I love reading views from many here on HC about turn dates and so on.

Just thought I would share my thoughts (too much thinking).

Please note - the author has lost money on the short side and is feeling grumpy at the time of posting. He usually feels this way near turn dates... lol...