Hey Khanjee, if you take the 2P and 2C together for AWE you get $602m for about 650bcf, under price pressure from a diabolical price period for the industry. They sold/got taken over at the worst possible time and I would say that we will never see those prices again. there's too much upward pressure on contracts, not to mention the so called price cap which was a rather generous price reset for the industry. I would bet that $12gj will be the new norm soon nationwide. My own calcs on COP for DOMGAS come in at around $2.80gj including development capex and opex, so a 400bcf share for NWE would be $1.152 - $1.872bn gross profit after well head taxes at the $6 - 8 gj contract rates.
My guess is there's approx 512bcf share in the Lockyer complex kingia section and another 250bcf share in the remaining leads, so 750bcf for arguments sake. if the GIP is evaluated at 1.75 gj for a takeover of NWE, then you're looking at 1.33bn, so 18-20cps. If the oil comes in as well and/or there's gas to be extracted from the other sandstones then you can add more to that price.
I'm holding out for the next four drills and seismic recovery before making a call on my holdings, I'll try to go for a split and cover part cash out for a house and part for divies if I like the company that offers a T/O, but once I have my options in front of me then I'll make the call.
In any event, we're all on a winner from my view and all have ideas on what we think the company is worth and what it might be taken over for, if at all. for what it's worth, I did think a while back that MIN selling NWE did make sense if it covered all of their development costs.
gltah and Dyor
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