I did not fully understand the Q3 report, and not being a shareholder of Intrum, I was not prepared to expend effort trying to resolve an area of dissonance – for the purchased debt portfolios segment, a reported loss did not, IMO, match the positive commentary. I get the feeling that Intrum's management gilded the lily.
Intrum's portfolios (PDLs in CCP speak) were amortised at 39%, which seems too low, suggesting a balance-sheet over valuation to me (historically, CCP averages circa 47% effective amortisation). What Intrum calls Estimated Remaining Collections, ERC), are for 180 months (15 years), which seems to be too long to me, also suggesting a balance-sheet over valuation.
Over valuing the balance-sheet value of PDLs is the hoary trap that many debt buyers fall into as they strive to report good results for years, but the proverbial always hits the fan later, often after the CEO has resigned. Fortunately, CCP's management tends to do the opposite (understate balance-sheet values, and hence understate NPAT, but this NPAT must surface later when collections are made on fully amortised PDLs. The zero PDL amortisation offsets the higher cost of collecting on old debt, which allows CCP to hold back from buying PDLs when they are too expensive, and still keep collections teams by refocusing their attention on older debt.
CCP Price at posting:
$18.80 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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