Ann: WGO: Strike's Second Supplementary Bidder's Statement, page-34

If Gina and Ellison get to 50% combined, they have effective control of the WGO. ie. to choose majority of directors and, thereby, senior management.

I think this explains the rather peculiar/arbitrary 40 percent acceptance threshold for the 36 cents offer.
If Ellison is buying on market these past couple of days, they might be getting close to 50 percent between them.
Once that hurdle is crossed, one or the other will launch a bid for Strike (pure spec).
But at this point I think it’s safe to assume Gina and Ellison are working together (ie. otherwise Ellison would’ve announced a competing bid after acquiring Regals shares).
And while Gina would prefer to get to the compulsory acquisition level of 90%, it is not necessary for achieving their strategic objectives of a). securing control of Perth Basin b). Getting the reserves needed to underpin their own gas and urea plant (it is important to note, acquiring gas reserves is not the most expensive part of any such business plan), and c). Blocking a direct competitor with its own plans for a fertiliser plant.

This is pure speculation of course as we can’t read the minds of the main protagonists (this also explains the difficulty of figuring out what will happen next throughout this whole process). But for me, this aligns best with the known facts and what HASN’T happened (ie. MIN buying a huge chunk but not launching a bid for WGO).

Also, while I feel takeover for STX is around the corner, Gina/Ellison may wait a couple of months. However, in this regard, they may be worried about STX becoming cash flow positive (Walyering) and then locking up the SE reserves by signing an agreement with Koch (or some
other partner for the urea plant).

Having said all that, apart from feeling a takeover was impending prior to the WGO deal, my radar had been off since the whole process started unfolding, so I say this with no confidence at all