Ann: Mukuyu 1 & Sidetrack Well Results Amendment, page-601

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Davy Boy

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07/01/23

07:50

Post #: 65573512
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Originally posted by huaneng: ↑

If you drill Mukuy 2 you will have the same or more risks compared to drilling the Mukuyu 1 (Second Sidetrack).

IVZ arguments that Mukuyu 2 will have less risks because of applied lessons learned & mitigations like
that they know now that they have no overpressured regime,
that they will use synthetic oil based mud
etc.
pluse some geological arguments.

But you can apply all this lessons learned, planned mitigations without any limitations for the Mukuyu 1 (second sidetrack) as well.

All things concidered the risk for drilling Mukuyu 1 (second sidetrack) will be smaller because a big part of the well (about 2.000 m) is already behind cemented casing and does not to be drilled anymore. Mukuyu 2 will be more expensive than drilling Mukuyu 1 (second sidetrack) because you have to build a new well site, have to rig down, move the rig, rig up and you have to drill about 2.000 m (minus x hundred meters) to reach more or less the same formations as Mukuyu 1 has reached already. And when you have severe mud losses during drilling the first 2,000 m, you will be surprised how high the mudbill will be for the SBM ...

So, you can ask yourself, why does IVZ drill Mukuyu 2 and not Mukuyu 1 (second sidetrack), although Mukuyu 1 (second sidetrack) is less expensive and has less risks?

At the moment I see two possible explanations, why IVZ does not want to drill Mukuyu 1 (second sidetrack) for a commercial flow test:

a) the one explanation could be: the quality of data aquisation was so bad that they do not know if and where they have candidate reservoirs for a commercial flow test. This could be an argument that they want to drill the first 2,000 m once again to get the missing data. i.e. poor drilling performance

b) the other explanation could be: Mukuyu 1 and Mukuyu 1 (first sidetrack) are dusters. no chance to get a commercial flow rate with a production flow test from Mukuyu 1 (otherwhise IVZ and no other oil company would not terminate, giving up this well (I think Scott Macmillan used the word terminate but I am not 100% sure)) i.e. no fantastic results

In this case you have to use the geological arguments why to drill Mukuyu 2.

Originally IVZ had good geological reasons and explanations to drill Mukuyu 1 at this specific location to hit this specific multiple targets and primary target within this specific compartment. Now they say, no we have to drill the Mukuyu 2 at the top of the anticline (which should be done with the first well always according to the petroleum geology textbook).

But on the other hand keep in mind: often at the top of an anticlines the thickness of the formations are smaller.

Expand

I don't think there is any point drilling another sidetrack when they can't get a working formation tool to site.
As I posted before oil to surface is the only way you can declare a discovery on the ASX.....if you can't get a sample up of because of equipment failures then to keep repeating it for the same result is stupid.,

IVZ Price at posting: 15.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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