Before I begin, the US bounce on Friday basically avoided a market crash so my condolences to all those that went all in on that strategy
Unfortunately my targets from December never got hit ever since the games the xjo decided to play in the 2nd half of december (almost back to mid December levels again which we should get to today & confirm that everything that was sold from mid December was a bear trap as we see from my post that everybody seemed to ignore as markets fell)
Apart from the US, the rest of the world went back to their December highs & then some That's just very unlucky for me that I'm trading the dog xjo otherwise I would've been proven correct with all the crazy claims I've been making of late Haha I shouldn't laugh because that 2nd half of december wasn't very enjoyable for me (more enjoyable atm. Haha)
This week has to be the squeeze to get the xjo back on track for bulls
There's only 1 chart left on the US that can still hold bulls back this week That's the bond yields chart AU bond yield chart looks better than the US but still not the healthiest of charts (I have to assume to the worst is over for now but you never know)
The other 2, the Aud/dxy & the vix look good enough for bulls to carry on (I would suggest looking at pre covid bull charts & not the mad post covid bull charts to look at targets, range etc whenever I mention bull charts)
If the xjo can get back above 7250 this month it puts us back into the 7450 range Everything I've been saying through December should play out (finally) If the xjo manages to cover everything that went short from the start of december without getting back above 7250, then it's not going to be fun for bulls for a while It means Australians are still selling the rallies up here & even if the rest of the world goes to the moon, the xjo won't (its done that before) Then it'll be time to get attached to shorts again
In regards to today's trading on the xjo, current channel is 7160 & 7220 (7140 & 7200 at the close)
Any backtest on the open, it has to break below the 7160 fence & target 7080 (that'll be depressing for bulls) Still bullish on the hrly chart but depressing as it's less likely xjo will get out of the 7250 range this month
I wouldn't mind a short squeeze that breaks through the 7220 fence but unlikely (as I mentioned last week, I still expect red candles to distract. I didn't think it'll be this easy to go from 6920 lows straight back up but we're already up 250 points. There was 1 red candle at 7080. Surely it needs another breather soon)
All these numbers are speculative atm as I'll be unlikely to be posting during premarket or early open
(20min delay)