Reviewing this potential revenue to flow from 2023 (based on estimated sales trajectory from Steve Davis) For the potential bigger picture I thought a snap shot of Neu's total potential revenue over the next 7 years now adding remaining milestones of $350m US for Acadia deal and likely something similar for ROW.
From recent quarterly Neu had approx $42m on hand and is expecting another $112m in 2023 = $154m
Neu is also expected to get some type of upfront payment for ROW deal, MST have previously referenced US$20m = $29m AUD
Royalties below from sales US & assumed ROW, used 10-15% capped to US$500m peak sales;
2023 US deal $11m AUD and another $7m perhaps from ROW = $18m pre tax
2024 US deal $24.4m AUD and another $24.4m perhaps from ROW = $48m p/t
2025 US deal $42.6m AUD and another $42.6m perhaps for ROW = $85m p/t
2026 US deal $65.4 AUD and another $65.4m perhaps for ROW= $130m p/t
2027 US deal $93m AUD and another $93m perhaps for ROW= $186m p/t
2028 US deal $106m AUD and another $106m perhaps for ROW= $212m p/t
2029 US deal $113m AUD and another $113m perhaps for ROW= $226m p/t
There is also still $350m US or $508m AUD in sales milestone payments to be paid to Neu by Acadia in addition to these sales royalties above.
For now it may be assumed that ROW may have similar sales milestones given I have used same US royalty 10-15% so another $508m AUD from ROW (i will only use $350m US/$508m AUD for ROW as its assumed at this point)
Assuming no milestones first year 2023, not clear on exact amounts/target threshold required, both US and ROW total $1,016bn AUD over this 7 years to peak sales, divided by the remaining 6 years 2024-2029 = $169m AUD per year average.
So $150m cash in hand ($30m Upfront to offset running costs for some time) and AUD $905m total combined royalty revenue over 7 years + $1bn+ AUD milestones revenue = over $2bn AUD in revenue over the 7 years
I have previously had price conservative target range $16 p/sh or $2bn market cap, allowing for some value priced in for NZ-2591 and Fragile x.
However based on the the above I am now leaning towards $30p/sh or $3.7bn market cap for trof asset alone minimum, given all of this revenue goes straight to Neu's bottom line and with an upside to $45 p/sh or $5.6bn market cap.
$2bn combined revenue for next 7yrs to peak sales = combined average out of $285m p.a - 30% tax = $200m P/E of 1.55 x 25 = $38 p/sh
The key for me is we have this revenue to come in the space of 7 years potentially, starting from this year if approved.
I have used milestone revenue in my revenue as its such a massive part of earnings ie; $1bn+ or 50% due to our licensing arrangement and the payments will happen often enough through US deal and potentially ROW once confirmed, so it can't be dismissed imo as its continual revenue over this 6-7 years and not using it is not representing the true potential value of the company.
No value included for Nz-2591 or Fragile-X
Feel free to comment, or pull apart. Or provide different valuation for Neu based on its current position as it finds itself on the start of pathway to receive in my view at least $2bn in pre tax revenue straight to bottom line over next 7 years.
(20min delay)