Thanks Hottod for pointing that out, much appreciated.
I did discount 2023 ROW royalty revenue with hope we may see some, if we remove that its $11m AUD rather than the $18m for 2023, AUD $7m reduction.
I am hopeful Up front for ROW may be bigger that the $20m US, perhaps this may off set.
The US$350m milestones for Acadia deal, again I only used US$350m for ROW, so this is already discounted from what Acadia agreement had so if I went as you note, US $165m for US deal, and potential US$165m for ROW + another US$105m for ROW to match what Acadia's total commitment is ie.$455m brings to total $430m US combined for Trof alone or $630m AUD, so approx $270m less in relation to sales milestones.
Brings pre tax revenue down from $2bn to now $1,63bn, this is as conservative as we can get based on estimated peak sales.
I think this is very conservative, only using low numbers on all fronts, leaving real potential upside.
Would be great to see ROW not only pay higher upfront than US$20m MST suggested and perhaps higher royalty or greater sales milestones given it looking like a potential deal is coming perhaps with no risk attached, as apposed to Acadia's deal done in 2018 with all risk attached, and US$150m+ spend to get through phase 3 trials, surely attracts a premium given the interest? I actually would expect 1 of these to change significantly to be better that US Acadia deal, upfront, or sales royalties or milestones.
Looking forward to seeing more detail on ROW first and foremost, and Acadia's launch for a clearer picture again.
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