Yeah well my opinion is obviously somewhat different in that that conversation is clearly ALL very subjective on how you want to interpret the back and forth conversation and the way the question was set up and answered.
Lynch clearly coming from a position where he not only believes he will produce 226,000 tpa , but will do everything in his power to achieve this.
So he says all this in the context of stating FIRST the 50% ...... or 113,000 having been established by this very notion of the 226,000. And not in the context of ' Whichever occurs FIRST ' language. Almost as if the whichever occurs first is virtually irrelevant because it fall into the 50% classification.
So he says Piedmont will get the FIRST 113,000 but then moments later says that Piedmont will get their 113,000 tpa in a 12 month period from commencement of production....and at the same time states that its won't be about who gets the FIRST ton. So it seem to be in the context of Piedmont just getting their 113,000 in that first 12 months. So I reckon the conversation is still very much INCONCLUSIVE in the language used and expressed. Even Brett was fumbling on the line of questioning around logic of the comparative starting offtake and amendment.
So you can make what you will of this , and everyone including myself will have their own interpretation.
Either way , if you divide 226,000 by 12 you get 18.333 per month. And when you multiply that by 3 months , you get 56.5 tons . Or if you take 90% of 180,000 tons you get 162,000 tons less the 113,000 tons and you get 49,000 tons.
Interestingly when you divide 162,000 tons by 9 months you get a similar figure of 18,000 tons per MONTH or 54,000 per say the June Quarter and 162,000 for the other 9 months to March 2024 if you want to use that date. Only difference here is that I am saying it will be 42 - 45 thousand tones in the FIRST Quarter of production from March 31st.
And its fair to say by the conversation that Lynch himself doesn't even know apart from his firm beliefs of 226,000 for a full 12 month period.
So it is for these reasons and my interpretation of the back and for AGM conversation around the continued vague and almost misunderstood offtake correlation to proposed production , that I still believe that there will be a ' Surprise ' for Sayona shareholders come 30th June 2023. And so I believe that this surprise will come home to roost by catching out many shareholders by leaving them backpedaling and scrambling on what they had previously stated and gone with prior to this date.
But obviously this is ALL my opinion which I am entitled to and am sticking to as an investor in this Company. Everyone else is free to establish and go with their own views. I guess in the end its what you do with those views in terms of BUY - SELL - NEUTRAL which will matter the most and reward you the most at the end of the day. If it turns out I am right though, you'd be pretty crook on Brett for muddling and confusing the issue at the AGM wouldn't you ?
And with respect to the Carbonate decision , he basically leaves it up to you to decide whether the Company would have spent ALL the millions on the studies with HATCH if they ( the Venture ) didn't already agree to go ahead with it. But yet there are still those who will scaremonger and have you believe that Piedmont will somehow hold out on that decision to move forward. At the end of the day it comes down to how you want to roll the probabilities on your calculated ' valuation ' and ' accretive ' outcome.
(20min delay)