The ABS figures are calculated inappropriately. They are based on a comparison to base lines with no adjustment made for population growth or population aging.
From the ABS Report:
In this report, data for 2021 is compared to an average number of deaths recorded over the 5 years from 2015-2019 as was the case in previous publications. Data for 2022 is compared to a baseline comprising the years 2017-2019 and 2021. 2020 is not included in the baseline for 2022 data because it included periods where numbers of deaths were significantly lower than expected.
- In 2022, there were 144,650 deaths that occurred by 30 September and were registered by 30 November, which is 19,986 (16.0%) more than the historical average.
Source: Provisional Mortality Statistics, Jan - Sep 2022 | Australian Bureau of Statistics (abs.gov.au)
The 19,986 excess is calculated as follows:
This is based on the following ABS data:
From the first table you can see that the 2022 population is 832,000 greater than the average in chosen baseline with variations also occuring in the specified age categories.
A more appropriate method is to calculate death rates per 1 million population within age groups. The following takes the above data and converts to deaths per million:
The Excess deaths calculated this way totals 9,455. (note: I have used the average death rate per million for the 2017-2021 years rather than drp the 2020 data from the calculation).
This compares with the ABS quoted Covid-19 deaths :
"Between January and September 2022 there have been 8,160 deaths due to COVID-19 that were certified by a doctor."
After adjusting for Covid-19 deaths, the only age group with Excess Deaths in excess of Covid-19 deaths is the "persons 85 and Older" category with 1,920 in excess 0r 0.35% of this age population.
Regards
SP
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