If you are going to do a DSO only valuation, you need to make a number of adjustments to your calculations:
- The shipping volume would be a lot more than one per month. Core plans to mine around 1.0 to 1.1Mt/yr of ore. Some of this will be lost as fines but there is potentially 900-1,000k of 6.3mm product that could either be DSO shipped or put through the under construction DMS plant. That's 60-67 DSO shipments per year (at 15kt each) not 12.
- If Core was a DSO only operation, the cost of operation would be a lot lower than $450/t
- Many of the prices being regularly quoted are USD, but Core's financials are in AUD
- Taxation will reduce pre-tax profits
All of this is also fairly irrelevant because Core's plan is to commission its DMS plant meaning that rather than something close to 1MT of DSO each year, something around 180-190kt of Spod will be shipped.
If you start multiplying 180-190kt of Spod by market spod (not DSO) rates and some guess discounts to market / capped rates, the numbers are huge. A$1b is pretty easy to get as the calculation given current spot rates.
There's also the issue noted by YB that a 10x P/E will not be applied to a company if the market believes the price point for those profits is a spike.
Hope this helps
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