Banter and general comments, page-21251

I posted this simple model in July last year. A few of the numbers may have changed since then, and in particular the realised selling price for spod depends heavily on the undisclosed terms of our offtake contracts. Plus, we won't reach nameplate capacity during CY2023. So maybe it's a little optimistic for the near term but gives an idea of what can be achieved. Happy for anyone except troyklomo to shoot holes in it.

Production: 173,000 tonnes 5.8% spod concentrate (from the updated DFS presentation Aug 21 - they stated they could go up to 197kt but let's be conservative)

Pricing: FOB price US$5000 (latest reported price is >$7000 but that's for 6% and spot pricing, not contract).

Operating Cost: US$362 (from DFS) - let's make it US$500 to allow for inflation

Gross annual profit: 173,000t * (US$5000 - US$500) = US$778m = A$1.1bn (@0.70 - current exchange rate is more favourable)

Less royalties, overheads, taxes (say 40%) gives annual NPAT of A$667m.

Using a PE of 8, MC should be 667m * 8 = $5.3bn.

With 1.7bn SOI, the SP should be $5.3bn / 1.7bn = $3.12 per share

Not advice, DYOR etc.

Figaro