Q3 Trading Update Guesses, page-14

The question I've always struggled to answer is, "At what market share % does SMP max out?"

Because, as with all land grabs, at some point the law of diminishing returns kicks in.

So is the terminal value for the number of terminals (see what I did there?) 25,000 for SMP (i.e., 10% market share)?

I've always worked with that 25,000 figure in mind, but they are running about 9-12 months ahead of where I had initially expected them to be when I first bought the stock (and that's despite the non-trivial event of Covid happening in the interim), suggesting that I need to start revisiting that 25,000 end game number.

So know I'm thinking, maybe they reach 15% share of the market, which would mean a potential to more than triple their current number of terminals?

Needless to say, it makes a huge difference to the valuation of the company.

Any insights that might help?

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