Ann: Signing of Drilling Contract , page-22

I wrote this post reply somewhere else, but is relevant so I put it here...I continue on with another topic at the bottom...

[QUOTE]
Corporate-be careful with NGE. I get the feeling that it will be pumped up on the lead up to the drill and dumped easily
[/QUOTE]



corporate,

In other situations oilers can be dumped easily mid drill or in the lead up... This can be the case if they are dependant on well success, or have little other fundamentals for support, so shareholders may take profits... NGE could easily react differently (and I think it will) as the company is fundamentally strong with a 10 billion dollar, large oil project with the majors, right in NGEs back yard...
Now thats just talking about what will happen before final drilling results...



New entrants like Steamroller must be very careful, and think clearly about what they are going to do, because in one afternoon there is a reasonable chance that much of the recent gains will be wiped out if Panakawa fails...



Just like with CSG the market is in its infancy stage with PNG, as such the market is yet not mature enough to handle failure of Panakawa, and will probably dump NGE back to 15cents...

Im thinking along the same lines as Trackers that said this could/should top out near 30cents before final drill announcements come and that alone represents a good trading opportunity...

At this stage I will personally risk it all the way and hold through as the company has great long term prospects that will see the share price up no matter the outcome of this well, and therefore a good medium/long term hedge on failure...

knowing that you have the fundamentals and share price support to rebound the stock after initial selloffs is a good mixture and not easily found in the oil game...

NGE is the goods, but might be better opportunities to buy around 13-15c if Panakawa fails...

either way, NGE gets to one dollar...

with Panakawa success we could get there sooner.. without it, it will just take more time...

Same thing with CUE and Artemis...
...
..
.
Good post Dexter,
those success rates, along with other strong fundamentals like cheap drilling costs, and favourable tax etc etc, has and will continue to be enough to attract large oilers, acquistions, land grab, mergers, takeovers, JVs...

Did you see what happened after the ICN MOU last week...?
The whole CSG sector went for a run...

why do we need to continue to see more of this sort of activity in PNG?
Because it is very hard to value what its all worth... And at this stage the only way to gauge what its all worth is to see what big oil is prepared to pay for it...
...
All the deals so far are discount...
in time as these deals firm up, then NGE will be positioned for a strong re-rating... it will take time...
In Reality, PNG LNG is so big and going forward that the market should be all over it NOW>>>>

Im gearing up for all this Now anyway, because I can see what will happen in the region...its really a no brainer to see what will likely play out with PNG LNG monster cooking away...
...
My tip, Oil Search to 20 bucks a share....
3 times up for a 5-6 billion cap...

who ever said there was no leverage in large oil?

well, I will tell you....
there is now...
lol...


.^sc