SMN (ASX) Ann: Breakthrough FAA Certification

Originally posted by Lies&damnlies: ↑

Hi Folks

Just continuing on from my previous above post. At the time of writing the lower-low was 0.315. Today we set a new lower-low at 0.30. Something to note was that there was some volume with trades at this level (0.30) and also todays red day had the greatest volume for over 40 days. I think it shows that investors resolve is weakening and also a real absence of buyers, at what seems like bargain prices.

That knife is still falling and I continue to be reluctant to try to make a catch because I still think that a new lower-low is possible into the 0.20's.

Rather than setting a price to target I am going to use time as a guide to make my decision.

The Dec 2022 quarterly report due at the end of the January month, while I am expecting good results from AEM revenue. I don't think it will change the direction of the knife. I am also not anticipating any FAA news in that report. So that's 10 trading days where I will just sit and watch assuming that the report will be like last year on the 31 Jan.

Next the half yearly report is due at the end of Feb (last year 28 Feb). I expecting this to be just a summation of the last two quarterly and maybe some guidance comments. I still anticipate no FAA news in this report. That's an additional 20 trading days.

So by 28 Feb I will have been wearing my handcuffs for a total of 30 trading days. So many falling knives will have passed me by, with me babbling "But, I could have bought at 0.2?".

So in March the handcuffs come off.

Last year the FAA announcement for the CVM and Wifi approval was on the 7th of Mar. Pure speculation on my part, just based on what happened last year. it's not very logical. But after being restrained for so long I will put some gloves on and take a look at how low that knife has fallen.

I am currently underwater with SMN, so why am I so keen to increase my holding at these very low prices when the stock has fallen so far? I cannot find another company on the ASX that could go from 0.2? to ?.2? in a year or two.

Past experience. SMN is a company with amazing prospects and I have allot of confidence in their long term prospect.

The same with BRN. In 2017 , 2018 and 2019 the SP had fallen from 0.30 very steadily with two bounces along the way. I first got in at 0.06c and then foolishly payed 28% more for my second purchase at 0.077. 0.30 to 0.06 is a humongous fall, actually it got as low as 0.03 before my first buy.
They went far too crazy when Mercedes announced that they were using BRN tech then price went briefly to 2.34 I sold a tiny parcel of my original purchase in the 1.60s. I free carry my holding by a long long way its currently at 0.675.

Its the same story with PLS although I didn't get in at the grass roots stage but later ( I was not aware of them until 2020). But in 2018 PLS was 1.24 it fell in 2019 and 2020 to reach a low of 0.126. So 1.24 to 0.126 another humongous fall. I got in at 1.20 currently at 4.07

So SMN 2016 was 2.99 and in Jan 2023 currently at 0.32. maybe I'll be able to buy at 0.2?. I currently have more confidence in SMN than I had in both BRN and PLS at my first buy.

It just time that is SMN's enemy. If the approval takes longer the SP should weaken.

All of this is just my opinions , As always DYOR.

cheers Lies

Expand

Hi Folks

Well my best laid plans about how to catch that falling knife just dissipated into thin air. Todays SMN's announcement stopped the plunge cold and caused a bounce.

Don't get me wrong, I loved the news, it backs up my opinion of the company and why I was trying to top up at bargain prices.

Well done to the buyers who got in at 30 cents the other day. It was not at great volume but down the track it could be a very very handsome multi-bagger.

My thinking cap is back on, while I watch the action play out for the next month of so. Down the track the effect of the announcement may wear off for some holders, but then again maybe not

To act or not to act , that is the question.

We shall see.

cheers Lies

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	17391	46.0¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

17391

46.0¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
48.0¢	4648	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

48.0¢

4648

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	17391	0.460
1	5600	0.420
3	19638	0.415
1	1250	0.400
1	15189	0.395

No.

Vol.

Price($)

17391

0.460

5600

0.420

19638

0.415

1250

0.400

15189

0.395

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.480	4648	1
0.505	9591	1
0.525	1375	1
0.530	24999	2
0.600	10000	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.480

4648

0.505

9591

0.525

1375

0.530

24999

0.600

10000

(20min delay)
Last 48.0¢		Change 0.010(2.13%)		Mkt cap ! $65.93M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
47.5¢	48.0¢	46.5¢	$6.373K	13.48K

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