"Not Profitable at current prices without Sc credit"
Interesting...
The last published average opex costs were as per the SS which was $36.3usd per kg with no Sc credit.
View attachment 4991068My estimate for current revenue per concentrate tonne is $50usd/kg. Noting my estimates has been accurate to company published revenues over a period of 24 months.
View attachment 4991080Note this is done on the spot REO pricing. i.e. Pr and Nd pricing $105,000 and $117,000 respectively.
At this point in time it would be worth noting that some people bullishly support companies using pricing up to $150,000 for Nd Pr.
Companies don't use generally use spot pricing for feasibility studies unless they plan on producing in the immediate or short term. If a company plans to be in production in 2025 then pricing inputs are typically reflective of what the REO is expected to be at that point. Noting that IXR's forecast pricing in the SS for argus (from memory.)
One can view the revenues based on no Sc and spot price in Post #:
65472953. Just repeating old news...
5mtpa initial feed production.Totally omit Sc credit. (noting i believe 10-20tpa to be perfectly likely/reasonable but i'll omit for the exercise)Assume a 810ppm input (this is LoM) but production rates show over 2000T under 5mtpa production presumably a higher input mine grade in early years. (Can check SS for these REO t production rates)similar recoveries92% MREC produced70% payabilityno increase of REO pricing.So below is the average revenue payable over SS input resource. Noting that my belief of mined grade is higher in initial years and decreases in later years. Hence why the production profile under 5mtpa i land at 1600T. whereas SS has 2000-2200. This make sense, as as 12.5mtpa my calc generates 4000tpa whereas study shows 3800ish showing a decrease in head grade in latter stages (so this is by no means perfect)
Now assumed a similar ramp up profile so the 70M and 47M capex in Y4 and Y6 and Y9 can be flicked wherever. but shows around 60M USD post tax profit across first 4 years and the --41M usd out lay for expansion which seems to indicate that the capex can be fully funded. Ir-respectively, i expect some shortfall or partial funding can be done via debt or capital raise.
If we we're to add say 10-20tpa production across LoM for Sc which i believe is entirely feasible given it will be produces as a by-product at no extra cost and so even in years where 40tpa or greater is produced the price will crater and likely only be equivalent to 15-20tpa or so.Adding that in even at the assumed price of $800usd/kg (which was the 25tpa price assumption in study so i've used a lower price) over LoM added another 12M USD to the bottom line.~55M EBITDA USD. That punches out around a 300M USD NPV 25Y LoM - FWIWThen if one inputs back in the long term pricing of REO which remains fairly flat until after Y5 whereby it rises fairly significantly from ~60usd/t to 80/90usd/t and then 118usd/t.Noting other developers appear to be using assumed revenues of NdPr above 150usd/kg and doing so from Y1 and putting 4% CAGR on that.Any ways if one throw in a more conservative rise of the REO pricing is where one can arrive at closer to what i think will be closer to reality.In summary, in my mind above and below indicates;1) Rough economics at spot price with no Sc credit. (marginal, but profitable) - what bears are banking on.2) Spot price with a small Sc Cr. (solidly profitable NPV would warrant current MC or higher IMO)3) Forecast REO pricing with small Sc Cr. (generates MC in FCF annually) (shown below) - what bulls are banking on
Note: Nothing here considered for other revenue streams or downstream value and magnet recycling.Also doesn't consider any improvements made since the SS in terms of some of the met-work, processing, mining methodology etc etc.The downstream refined revenue moves to around $77usd/kg so as long as it doesn't cost 25usd/t to refine a separate a concentrate from 92% to 99.9%. the massive difference in Ionic downstream objectives is they would not be trying to treat a 40% MREC, uncracked, potential laced with increased levels of radio actives. This IMO means that the capex and opex costs for the ixr refinery/separation facility when expected feed sources are in a favourable state and higher grades will be very cost competitive.
We ultimately don't know what the updated opex cost, production profile and REO pricing mechanism will be until the FS is released. But IMO with referenced, calculated methods to support it - the project is profitable at spot price with no Sc credit as per SS opex cost and current concentrate revenue.
Supported evidence of an Sc market for even at 10-20tpa (noting IXR will be one of few to produce this as a by-product) adds 12m or so to the revenue.
Go one step further and forecast a rising REO price, (noting even some bears are ultra bullish on REO developers with a 'study' using Nd/Pr of $150,000) then the revenue significantly rises.
Haven't been posting much as not much to add aside from the usual circle work on here. Looking forward to the FS, the MLA being finalised (presumbly the FS and the mineral reserves linked to this) as well the SS for the downstream venture.
SF2TH
(20min delay)