Have you got any company cited announcements to support any of those comments or are they just unsubstantiated opinion?
-100% debt funded arrangement is pretty far fetched (try 60%). (Company stated SS)
-14-18% interest rate. Try 8-10% (company stated SS)
-GOU Free-carried 5-15% is there a company announcement stating this? Speaking with people actually operating in Uganda (that is not just IXR). Just like they haven't announced the Uganda government is tax break - so it'd be wrong to assume it either way. Best to wait for the company announcement on that.
-taxes 30% = got one right
-royalties actually are 5% (company stated SS)
-To your other points - yes included in the opex cost as per the detail in the SS (maybe you should read it).
I could have assumed Nd, Pr price @ $150,000 from Y1 and put CAGR of 4% on it. I could have also omitted genuine opex costs to run a downstream sep facility. That would pump up the figures nicely - sometimes companies do that to make their projects look more viable than they are. Generally they sink long term.
I'll meet less than half way on REO pricing inputs from another company that apparently could release on the LSE. Others here super bullish on it - so by default questioning those input would be stated their own holds more than twice as unreliable.
So about spot price,(i won't put 40% ontop spot price like others lol) 2% CAGR from Y5. (basically suggesting REO don't lift until 2028. Add Royalty, Add debt consideration, i'll even through in dilution for debt, 60% ownership.
Noting that REO is significantly lower than forecasts.
Also (There's been zero evidence to suggest or support where (if any) other ownership will be transferred.
Averages 36c on a PE of 30 over LoM. Of course someone can halve that if they want PE 15 whatever anyone thinks is appropriate.
But yeh,
-No upside in the opex costs
-No upside in the met recovery
-No upside in throughput rates improving (assuming that the heap leach are the bottle neck hence why tims comment in the interview of currently looking to double the depth with met work underway on the leach stacks.
-No upside to their being an expanding market for the Sc. People are doing well to predict 25Y in the future there.
-No upside to increasing modules and therefore the mining rate above 12.5mtpa
If i wanted to use pumped figures that other companies used in their "Study" think it was "management reviewed" aka we alter some stuff as we see fit. And inputted $150,000 from Y1 and CAGR 4%. (disclaimer i don't think this is right but a company got it into a FS that IXR largest bear support)
That is just how easy a company can cook the books on the project.
I'm not sure people that don;t want to hear my opinion ask for it... IMO best to wait for the FS if you're not able to perform your own high level calcs.
Failing that contact the company - who can at least articulate what you may not be able to understand/interpret from the public announced information.
Oh and BTW above for those reading the thread. That's only for Makuutu. Nothing for downstream processing or magnet recycling. i.e. Makuutu quite profitable on the mine alone. Only improves once you go downstream and then add in another revenue stream for recycling magnets. Would love for that to translate into magnet making. We shall see.
I will leave the threads to return to the usual 'rainbow' rhetorical q's.
SF2TH
(20min delay)