are relenza sales biting into tami sales???, page-10

USA, and I guess ROW, pandemic anti-viral stockpiles are being adjusted from 15% Relenza, 85% Tamiflu to 50/50. It would make sense to release Tamiflu to the market and simply replace it with Relenza until the desired mix was reached.

Releasing from the stockpile for normal medical sales, without direct replacement would mean no Tamiflu sales to those countries until the unrequired 35% of the stockpile was sold. That has to be very counter productive for Roche. Imho, by the time we get to that point, resistance issues could result in a much lower proportion of Tamiflu and corresponding futher increase in the Relenza mix.

Stockpilers will not go for one bulk order for fast delivery, even if they could get it. They are sure to spread it out a bit so that it all does not expire at the same time in 5 or 7 years. I expect that in excess of the current production capability is effectively pre-sold for the next few years.

It is a wonder that any Tamiflu is sold for other than the very young and those with existing lung and airway problems.

Not only is the world more likely to use Relenza than previously the case, but those normal medical use doses will have to come from non-pandemic supplies. With the process of more than trippling the pandemic stockpile, it will be a struggle for the medical suppliers to stock Relenza. Only absolutely required Relenza, not available elsewhere, will be coming from the pandemic stockpiles while they are trying to build to 50%.

atm swine flu is not as serious as it could be. Pandemic stockpiles are not there for a current relatively mild flu, but to cover a worse case. Pandemic stockpiles will continue to be required.

There are ongoing indications that swine flu mutations are becoming a more deadly problem. This is keeping the subject front and centre. Even if it dissappears overnight, stockpiles are still required. If it gets progressively worse, the sky is the limit for effective anti-virals.

It would be extremely surprising if Tamiflu sales did not reduce. We know why there are reducing Tamiflu sales. This is exactly what we have been looking for in advance of a blockbuster Relenza sales report from GSK this month.

The approval of the new inhaler, only for use during pandemics, is not a problem for pandemic stockpilers. The product is there FOR PANDEMICS.

Reducing Tamiflu sales are more of an indication of increasing Relenza sales rather than the reverse.

My sentiments on this forum are well known. This post is drafted in the most neutral and logical way that I can. Don't just think it is a lot of crap and remain silent if you disagree.

dp and Swiss tamiflu police, just go ahead and give me your traditional thumbs down. Rest of HC, no need for comments re dissappearing thumbs.