Roch. The point I am making is that probability of geological success versus the actual outcome are not always linear, so to assume they are is quite wrong. For example, look at the study done by Kari Ofstad and Helliksen (2015) and you will see that the linear discoveries line is only about 15% above the linear failures line. In other words, geological assurances do not always translate into commercial successes.
Ann: First Appraisal Well Update, page-197
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