gilead 1st qtr earnings webcast this tuesday, page-4

Hi tooluck,

You are looking too deep into certain possibilities and are focusing too much about what Tamiflu is doing regarding sales and market share.

The basics are that GSK has increased production to what we now know is 90 million disk halers a year.

This alone gives us roughly 90Million x $1.75 = $157 Million divided into 4 QTR = $39 Million.

Rota halers are going to be the BIG unknown and can add to this figure.

The FX will be a bit against us with the rising A$.

GSK has sale agreements IN THEIR POCKET for Relenza and this was the reason why they wanted to rise production to 190 Million doses.

These sale agreements are binding and will not just go away because of the swine flu has become a lesser issue.

With Tamiflu resistance more and more governements will look again and could possible up their excisting orders with GSK which they could not fill up till now.

Retail sales will also be strong as the Japanese market showed us with not long ago when Relenza had more Qtr sales then Tamiflu.

This all will work into Relenza's favour and hence I expect strong Qtr result.

Time will tell but we do not have to wait that long before we all know the real story.

Good luck

jojo