Banter and general comments, page-21620

If you're a trader you can skip this. If you're long, and look at the overall market from a stock fundamentals and economics view, for long term capital growth, these graphs are for you.

I've suggested that any recession, while likely constraining growth (such as in EVs sales (not orders) and therefore batteries in actual vehicles) in the short term, only defers that growth. It does not destroy it. That resultant demand is simply pushed to the right.

First chart ... 3rd or 4th most hated Investment Bank is probably UBS (after GS, CS, MS ... I might be onto something ... they all end in "S" and SS is not an investment bank). BTW, compare these to what I posted earlier from Albemarle strategy presentation.

AND MOST IMPORTANT - THE MEASUREMENT IS LCE - its overall demand ... LCE IS NOT LiOH and most definitely not SC6 or SC5.5 .....




So 2023, 2024, 2025 looks "roughly balanced", possibly slight surplus and then you see the flattening of the supply curve and the continued CAGR going on in demand. That "outlook" shows the neat term effects of some new supply coming online in 2023 and a lot more in 2024-2027 (think LTR, LLL, A11, PLS just in spodumene and the plethora of brine in SA)


BMI goes to 2040 in their forecast (some will hate that length of time). Their deficit is "just" 1.8Mt LCE at the base case in 2040 as compared to UBS with 3Mt in 2030



Fastmarkets however seems out of sync with the 2 players above .. they show balanced supply in 2023/2024 and the a supply surplus to 2030. ...Hmm ... better add them to the CXO hate list. Anypne who references Fast Markets from now on must be a shorter. My last reference to them then ay.



Now remember I said that this was measured in LCE. This is to take into account LiOH production, which in the old days (say a decade ago, was mostly done from brine and spodumene was a "rarity"). Chemistry matters. Basically 2 competing compounds Li2CO3 (Carbonate) and LiOH (Hydroxide).

And now we have 2 major Lion battery cathode chemistry groups as well.
The longer range, higher performance, more costly group (NMC, NCA) ... CAGR ~19% .... demand from mostly USA/Europe ... wants Hydroxide ... and that means Spodumene source
The lower cost, lower range, mass market small EV group (LFP) ... CAGR ~31% ... demand mostly Asia ... wants Carbonate ... and that means a Brine source. Also most likely the mass contender for ESS market and LFP batteries are heavier.

And so while I also hold the same names, generally never "balls deep" except for a couple (not CXO), as many here, I also am a firm believer in diversification (some will say diworsification) ... but hey each to their own INVESTING strategy.