Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, page-36

Hello,

It's true they have not guided specifically on EBITDA, but they do provide information that allows us to model a forecast and hold them accountable for performance. Take the following from the 30 August 2022 FY22 Investor Presentation:
p5. FY22 Turnover: $166m
p7. Operating EBITDA: $16.3m (TNT "normalise" this to $18.6m)
p7. Normalised EBITDA underlying growth reported as being 26% YoY
p23. Outlook for ">$200m turnover"

Guiding to exceed $200m turnover in FY23, against an FY22 number of $166m is almost exactly 20% top-line growth.
FY22 EBITDA organic growth was 26%, the numbers I posted were for 20%, so a conservative reduction in actual growth.

The reason for the wide margin in my NPAT forecast should be apparent to anyone who has followed Tesserent for a long time - management have more than $10m in undrawn funding to blow on acquisitions and they are notoriously bad at controlling expenses. If it helps, I'd put it 50% at -$2m to +$2m and 50% at -$8m to $-2m. If they stop acquiring right now and there are no unexpected D&A or other expenses, they could end FY23 with as much as $4m NPAT, but that's a lot of extraordinarily optimistic assumptions.

Given their track record, this company would be a lot better off with ANY other management, not no management.

Since Tesserent first acquired Rivium in July 2019, they have has spent $83m in cash and $50m in shares to acquire 14 businesses they claimed would generate $146m revenue and $26m EBITDA. FY22 revenue was $113m, FY22 EBITDA $16.3m, that's a huge multi-year underperformance. Literally several years of going backwards/sideways. Or they lied or were misled at each acquisition - you pick.