in some ways this isn't a bad thing. Think if RNU (or any ticker) rerated and jumped to some multiples and the market pooped. If sentiment was high and people were buying further in at higher prices while the market pooped and those stocks corrected, they would have a lot further to fall. For companies not yet earning, the falls could be justified, and recovery could take longer.
I am more comfortable with an SP that isn't purely sentiment based and reflects the progress of the company especially during a downturn.
AZL might be a good example of the hype I'm referring to. In February 2022, it peaked near 16C and currently sits near 7c. There was a lot of hype around Li in US being near Tesla factories and support of large US economy. The size of their resource etc etc. It hasn't recovered (or made progress) since 2022.
Tesla - another hype: was the previous MC justified (~ $400USD/share) and was the fall reasonable? A lot of TSLA's apparent value was sentiment based and that relied on Musk's god like persona. The people see Musk, a few production hiccups and sentiment shifts, SP falls to circa USD100/share. The question with TSLA is: is it still over valued? What makes it the most valuable car manufacturer in the world and will it stay that way when others catch up this or next year? Will TSLA produce more E.Vs than other manufacturers in the next 5 to 10 years? I'll leave that question there, but it doesn't sound plausible.
RNU has circa $140m in bank, access to gov loans and a large proven resource and method to extract with MC of ~ $600b. What would a justified fall during a downturn look like? If the MC was say $1b, what would a reasonable fall look like? My thought is a downturn would not affect RNU SP as much (with current MC) as it's already close to a fair value. Previous comments (that triggered this convo) mentioned 225 which sounds reasonable.
The difficulty for RNU include the fact that the graphite market is opaque and somewhat confused between artificial and synthetic and experts seem unprepared to define a path between the two, with this, RNU is still speculative. Natural graphite is cheaper and cleaner to produce but not as good as synthetic in battery performance. There are other drawbacks to synthetic including access to raw materials. The world currently does not have an alternative to graphite (natural or synthetic) in the anode. This is why I think we need technologies like Sicona's to improve natural graphite's performance. I'm no physicist or chemist so take this para with a grain of salt and DYOR.
Take everything I said with a grain and DYOR. These are my thoughts only, correct or incorrect and open to discussion and learning.
Not sure I have other thoughts to share ATM, but I rest easier feeling RNU SP is not over blown during the prospect of a market correction.
(20min delay)