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03/02/23
13:22
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Originally posted by dunnomuch:
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I didn't make it so no idea what was discussed. I did have a reasonable chat with HMD people to get a better understanding of the quarterly etc and it was a reasonable sort of discussion. Apparently had the cutoff date been just a few days into January then we would have seen a an extra $100k-$200k drop in from the US and JHC as they both paid up a bit just days too late for inclusion in cash flows, this augurs well for the next 4C. There is a lot of interest in old mate Keith... maybe that's a bit of a driver to the share price too? Personally, I think he presented really well and the webinar and subsequent comms have been very professional and pretty exciting in where things could go... however every time I hear some slick driven and capable yank taking things up I am always reminded of them good ol Bama boys who put the Homeside deal together for NAB once upon a time.... Americans have a very long history of slick talking Disallowed salesmen... I've expressed a bit of concern with regards to cashflow timings and cash requirements of the business and how they can align.. I expressed this concern to the HMD types and let them know that I have some cash aside for what I believe is the inevitable capital raise in the near future 3 months etc however HMD people seem to believe that isn't going to happen as at least 1 quarter of cash burn is going to be covered by cash into the business... HMD needs $800k+ USD per quarter to cover expenses and I don't remember them ever banking that much in any quarter yet.. even allowing for $200k USD that missed the last reporting period that then needs another $600k, maybe if you strip out $200k from general business revenue from exisiting clients that still leaves $400k to find... they think they can do it but there isn't a great track record so....dunno?? The prospect of another raise that is just to keep the business running is quite unappealing. I had no issue when there was an obvious need due to starting up and waiting for contracts to kick in etc however HMD now has some excellent "foot in the door" type scenarios and at least 1 MUST complete or we have an existential crises of lack of ability of the people running the show. If there was a signed contract that had a starting date in the future, just beyond current cash positions and was going to pay decent revenue which meant that HMD was just stuck for 6-9 months then I'd be ok paying into that type of capital raise. I did that 2 years ago with a cyber security business that I'm invested in and now they are doing a capital raise as they cannot hire enough people at once to capture all the business flowing in, that's been a great investment. Raising funds just to keep lights on when there are literally big fish in front of us would be unacceptable. Execution needs to start happening. Dunno?? I do know that Melbourne mums kicked off on the first of feb so maybe one of the mums thought HMD was a great thing and then found out it was listed and reasonably cheap so maybe they bought 1,000,000 shares yesterday?? Lots of wealthy families in Melbourne with friends and relatives in Tel Aviv so wouldn't be such a stretch to see some buying to start to materialise from Melbourne? e-Lōvu drops out of stealth mode this month too... they will be excited to share who they have been in pilot with and who is on the soon to pilot list.. the there is JHC.... how the actual f* are they operating in a non-binding contractual limbo??? resolution of that, which could also be this month (or never...) would accelerate the share price demonstrably, inclusion of the other bits of kicking off info and revenue would be a chance to unfurl the spinnaker and really move along. dunno dunno dunno..... all still close, all a bit of a guess, mixed parts of spin and hope plus some glimmers of possibility... I rolled an options position yesterday on BHP.. so much easier doing things like that rather than worrying about bloody Israelis and Melbourne types and how they interact with the Sovereign Republic of WA and whether or not a smooth talking cowboy is just another bloody typical all talk yank. I recently bought a new Husqvarna Z-554l mower so I think I'll just go and mow some paddocks while I clear my head, it's like being in a tie-fighter from Star Wars and normally I just pretend that the overgrown grass is the rebel army on Hoth and I'm Darth Vader but today I'll have to substitute those thoughts for HMD... I wish Moshe Dayan was the CEO of HMD and then we could all go mowing pretending that we were leading pillars of fire through the Sinai... my youngest has a pirate eye-patch, maybe I'll wear that instead of safety glasses while mowing to get a bit more of a Moshe Dayan vibe for the day. Maybe the humidity and fresh horse shit on the paddocks has overwhelmed my brain leading to the typing of non-sensical drivel... Dunno mate, I think February might just be the month of nexus points....
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thanks for sharing this information with us. I've never contacted a company I have a stake in, wouldn't know how to start, and embarrassed I'd sound like a dumbass. The gist that I am getting from your gist of the conversation is that yeah there probably will be a CR around the 3-4 month mark but potentially might be in the 20c range if some good news flow starts coming out from elovu, JHC or melbs.