Morning NZ.
Actually, the number of dogs to be recruited is less than that, assuming that the dogs on trial but not yet completed go through to be counted towards to final tally (i.e.: bloods in optimum range, compliance with trial protocol, survive the full trial period, etc.).
The best table to look at is the new format used in the recent quarterly:
As you can see, we need 8 from a further 22 to achieve SD at day 28, BUT 6 of those dogs are already 'Partially completed' or 'On study' - so they're already recruited.
When we consider that it is likely that:
a) vets have become better at identifying suitable recruits (remember the initial rapid recruitment in NZ that included dogs with disease that was too far progressed) and;
b) the optimum dosing regimen is now better understood;
it's reasonable to expect that the success rate will be higher towards the end of the trial than during the earlier part of the trial. This is common in open-label studies.
Using the numbers in the table, we're currently batting 10 SD dogs from 24 fully completed - around 42%. The target is 18 from 46, or 39%. So we're on track, as the announcements have been saying for ages now.
Depending on just how much better at recruitment and administration of MPL our trial sites have become, things could move very quickly indeed.
What we've also learnt through the trial - and this was totally unexpected - is that REGARDLESS of whether a dog has achieved SD by day 28, dogs given MPL + prednisolone after the 28 day trial period are all living 2 to 3 times longer than expected with good quality of life and no nasty side effects.
Translate that outcome to humans (as we anticipate it will) and it's easy to see why no one wants to sell.
Cheers
Densy
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