lowbrow friday, page-84

just putting a few ideas together for the longer term. I recently suggested a new bull market starting with the new armstrong cycle next year....Volt picked me up on that idea and said not necessarily so. Since then I have gone back and looked at the 10 Armstrong cycles since the mid 1920s and I will concede that a variety of things can occur after the left shoulder peak up to the ultimate peak

....However, of the 10 Armstrong cycles I interviewed in my recent survey, 9 of them coincided very extremely bullish markets in the 26 month period from the low to the left shoulder peak....this section of the Armstrong cycle accounts for strong albeit temporary recoveries in the mid 30s, the early 40s and the early 2000s. It also concides with accelerating already rising markets such as the late 20s, mid 80s and 90s. The odd man out was the armstrong cycle of the late 1960s.....however it should be noted that in the preceding years when the armstrong cycle was falling markets were rising....that 1960s falling armstrong certainly did not have a 2007 type event.....

.....but giving Laundry, Prechter, McHugh and Voltaire the benefit of the doubt that this bear will bottom in 2014ish...give or take.....then I must conclude that Prechters model is correct and this is a 5 wave down bear. The 2007 - 2009 leg was wave 1 and the recent recovery has been wave 2. The next next leg down should probably be the most hideous being wave 3 ???? ......but I conclude given the history of Armstrong cycles we will see a recovery, maybe somewhat akin to this current one sometime from mid 2011 before a final wave 5 down.....don't forget the 1987 crash occurred exactly at the armstrong left shoulder peak and we will have such an armstrong event in august 2013...so maybe we can look to there to see the final wave down. I would also have to think if there is much more destruction to come then it will come sooner rather than later but the very worst of the bear would be over by mid next year....

massive caveat....I am no elliott wave expert.....I hope it doesn't show too much.