Good analysis nathanbalck, but please note that EPN will be the sub-underwriter, not the underwriter. The question is: will other substaintial shareholders agree to participate in the sub-underwriting of the entitlement offer? and to what extent EPN is willing to sub-underwrite?
To be honest with you, i would not be surprised if MDT failed to raise the $200m because of the timing! Share markets are soaring around the world, so who wants to invest his/her money in a sinking ship? even if they offer decent discount (let us assume %20), dont you think that the %20 can be easily made by doing normal trading the market these days? Do you believe investors/instos are willing to put more cash into this?
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