Ann: Pioneer Dome Scoping Study, page-102

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locky27

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09/02/23

15:03

Post #: 66160360
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Originally posted by Koala1959 ↑

I agree with the sentiments expressed re the 50c offer being low.

To put my cynical hat on:

(1) The Board is supporting the deal
(2) The scoping study was skewed to a lower NPV based on the assumptions
(3) An independent valuer will likely be conservative and no doubt base that conservatism on the scoping study.
(4) Looking purely at the SP the market has applied since 2022 50c is around the median (apart from the short run up to low 70s) - the SP has basically fluctuated in a low 30c to 55c range. I do agree with the sentiment that has been expressed in the ESS threads that the offer is not fully reflecting the potential ESS has, but then the market has struggled most of the time to value ESS above mid 50s also.

Will there be another bid? - possibly but I am not holding my breath - will there be sufficient "No" votes to kill the offer? - possibly but by no means a certainty. If the offer does not proceed does ESS management have the ability to progress the project ?

I have certainly not made up my mind by any stretch, but my concerns are if no other offer is forthcoming and the offer does not proceed where will the SP land - my expectation is it could possibly fall back into the low 30s. My holdings aside from the recent option exercise range from 8c to 11c and no doubt there will be a lot of longer term shareholders with low averages - like me, they will need to consider the cost benefit of voting no and risking a SP fall possibly for an extended period or in my case taking around a 40c per share profit and investing elsewhere.

I am hoping there will be an alternative bid, I do believe there is sufficient value in ESS to justify that, the question is will one be forthcoming - certainly right now a 70c bid would be a no brainer to accept from my perspective - though I appreciate many SH will have a higher holding average and are prepared to take a longer term perspective for their investment in ESS.

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I just received a call regarding the scheme of arrangement and agreed to answere a list of questions. It gave me a chance to air my dissatisfaction and my view so be ready to answere your phones if a unknown caller gives you a ring.

ESS Price at posting: 50.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Pioneer Dome Scoping Study, page-102

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