q1 relenza royalty tipping contest, page-21

190M doses PA = 47.5M /Q.
Royalty discounted for adverse exchange rate = A$1.40/dose.
47.5M x A$1.40 = $66.5M royalty

There are indications from Biota that the 190M dose PA production was reached early December 2009, and that some countries have still not been able to obtain relenza.

All this points towards maximum sales. I believe that GSK production upgrade was in response to unfilled Relenza orders. There is no chance that GSK took a gamble that future orders would cover the production increase.

Allow a fudge factor for GSK playing with official sales/delivery dates to delay BTA royalties until the next Q and an even worse exchange rate, we can still visualise a A$55M royalty.

This is the real world, not a wish list. If it was just my wish list, the figure would be much higher.

Won't it be really interesting if we get Lani approval in Japan and A$55M royalty announcement around the same time! Any estimates what Biota sp would settle at then?