CYM

16.7%

4.2¢ cyprium metals limited

Ann: Investor Presentation, page-156

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FreeflyerNZ

1,109 Posts.

1324

13/02/23

02:57

Post #: 66206905

Originally posted by LD99: ↑
Hi Aussie, appreciate your posts usually - probably one of the more level headed posters here that takes into account both the positives and negatives (as one should).

Compare my estimates to what the current restart study has:

USD AUD Exchange Rate
1
C3 Costs - Per restart study

$2.82 $3.76 0.75 base case
2
C3 Costs - assumption now

$3.15 $4.57 0.69 current
3

4 Capital Costs

$279,000,000.00
5
Assumption now (based on inflated asset prices)

$335,000,000.00

Restart Study:

My current assumptions
1
Revenue

,876,000,000.00
2 less Operating Costs
-$1,069,600,000.00
3 less Royalties
-$108,800,000.00
4

5
Operating cash flows

$697,600,000.00
6

7
Direct Construction Exp

-$140,000,000.00
8
Other Sustaining Capex

-$40,000,000.00
9

10
Pre-op capex

-$165,000,000.00
11
Post Construct capex

-$140,000,000.00
12

13
Free Cashflows after Capex

$212,600,000.00
14

15
Rehab Costs

-$15,000,000.00
16
Sale of Assets

$100,000,000.00
17

18
Net Pretax Cashflows

$297,600,000.00
19
Income Tax

-$89,280,000.00
20

21
Net Cashflows (6.3 years)

$208,320,000.00
22

23
Per year
$33,066,666.67

1 P/E of 8 4,533,333.33
2 SOI 1450000000
3

4
$0.18

So - there is about a maximum 80% upside with the inclusion of the sale of the proceeds from the plant ($100mill). Given after 6 years an 80% return is about an 11% return p.a. there are plenty of other copper producers/mid cap/small cap that have a much higher risk/reward ratio at this stage of the business. Good luck of course.
Expand
If you are assuming C3 increase why arent you assuming a total of 10-11 years of HL production that the resource is now suggesting. Or the 20 more years of leaching or concentrating the sulphide.

The updated mine plan will throw your 80% assumption out of the water. But of course you won't acknowledge this.

CYM Price at posting: 10.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held

10 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Ann: Investor Presentation, page-156

Monadelphous inks $200M contract with Woodside to help build Pluto LNG – but will it make Scarborough cheaper?

ASX Market Open: ASX200 to rise for Friday session | July 26

Horizon firms up ore reserve for Boorara ahead of FY25 Q1 development decision

Tissue Repairs soars nearly 32% on TGA approval for wound healing gel

Capital raisings wrap: Brainchip, Ovanti, Lake and VHM

IGO kicks off earn-in copper drilling on-site Encounter's Yeneena play as it adopts new identity

Red Hawk upgrades Blacksmith with DSO mineral resource at the Eagle Deposit

Nova locks in NASDAQ US market listing at a value of only US$3.3M as ASX gets quieter and quieter

MinRes jumps 5% as the company meets production guidance – depressed iron ore prices be damned

Nine's staff strike as Paris Olympic coverage begins

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		USD	AUD	Exchange Rate
1	C3 Costs - Per restart study	$2.82	$3.76	0.75 base case
2	C3 Costs - assumption now	$3.15	$4.57	0.69 current
3
4	Capital Costs		$279,000,000.00
5	Assumption now (based on inflated asset prices)		$335,000,000.00

1		Revenue		,876,000,000.00
2	less	Operating Costs	-$1,069,600,000.00
3	less	Royalties	-$108,800,000.00
4
5	Operating cash flows		$697,600,000.00
6
7	Direct Construction Exp		-$140,000,000.00
8	Other Sustaining Capex		-$40,000,000.00
9
10	Pre-op capex		-$165,000,000.00
11	Post Construct capex		-$140,000,000.00
12
13	Free Cashflows after Capex		$212,600,000.00
14
15	Rehab Costs		-$15,000,000.00
16	Sale of Assets		$100,000,000.00
17
18	Net Pretax Cashflows		$297,600,000.00
19	Income Tax		-$89,280,000.00
20
21	Net Cashflows (6.3 years)		$208,320,000.00
22
23		Per year	$33,066,666.67

Ann: Investor Presentation, page-156

Top Stories

Monadelphous inks $200M contract with Woodside to help build Pluto LNG – but will it make Scarborough cheaper?

ASX Market Open: ASX200 to rise for Friday session | July 26

Horizon firms up ore reserve for Boorara ahead of FY25 Q1 development decision

Tissue Repairs soars nearly 32% on TGA approval for wound healing gel

Capital raisings wrap: Brainchip, Ovanti, Lake and VHM

IGO kicks off earn-in copper drilling on-site Encounter's Yeneena play as it adopts new identity

Red Hawk upgrades Blacksmith with DSO mineral resource at the Eagle Deposit

Nova locks in NASDAQ US market listing at a value of only US$3.3M as ASX gets quieter and quieter

MinRes jumps 5% as the company meets production guidance – depressed iron ore prices be damned

Nine's staff strike as Paris Olympic coverage begins

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