As always you are fully entitled to your own opinion Dan, but from where I sit you are deliberately missing the obvious.
I looked at the FY2019 and FY 2020 numbers, when they were basically just running iSentric and a few other side punts. This was long before the management change and the pivot to BNPL. Opex was *far* lower than it is today. Since that time they have launched BNPL and it’s obvious from reading the quarterlies / annual reports that by far the majority of the increased opex has gone into developing, launching and operating BNPL and all the associated marketing, programming, upkeep etc. Go back and read the Activity Reports from 2021 when they were blaming COVID lockdowns for not being able to get new merchants onboarded etc - you’ll see how personnel-heavy their approach is. That’s why there’s over 100 staff these days. Otherwise, your thesis is “they’re not there for BNPL, they’re working on some other secret sauce we don’t know about”. Which one is it, honestly?
Apart from a small bridging loan product they have done basically nothing with IDSB, which at the end of the day was an *investment* not a suite of products (you don’t need heaps of staff to invest). All those personnel hires were for BNPL, go back and read the quarterlies and follow the money trail on the cash burn. It’s all there to see.
I can only think you determinedly tell yourself this line about IOU not focusing on BNPL, because you’re perhaps one of the few holders who has run the numbers and realised that in the current credit/debt markets, their BNPL is doomed without enormous scale.
I still think IOU might have a good year if they deliver everything Paul promised in that video (sentiment plays a big part at this end of the market), but so long as interest rates remain elevated, their BNPL isn’t going to make any money.
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