Target $18.72, page-4696

1. AFR P. Ker 14.2.23 said

"Yancoal and Whitehaven’s investment plans

BHP expects every tonne of coal produced at Mt Arthur (to close in 2030- my words) to cost between $US84 and $US91 a tonne($121 to $131)in the year to June 2023.

Over the same period, Whitehaven expects each tonne to cost between $95 and $102 to produce.

Unlike BHP, Yancoal and Whitehaven do not plan to shut their NSW mines early, and on the contrary, have flagged further investment is likely in coal mines such asWhitehaven’s Vickeryproject...

Thermal coal prices drop

Top quality NSW thermal coal containing 6000 kilocalories per kilogram was fetching $US227.86 a tonne ($329.81) on February 10, according to GlobalCoal’s weekly settlement price.

While still extremely high by historic standards, NSW thermal coal prices have now fallen for nine consecutive weeks since GlobalCoal reported the price at $US416.02 a tonne on December 9.

A mild winter in Europe is partially responsiblefor the recent falls in the coal price, as power stations on the continent have navigated the depth of winter without fully depleting their coal STOCKPILES (my emphasis).

South Korean power generators buying high-energy coal from Russia will have to cease doing so from April onward (Sanctions-WHC to benefit? My words), and some Australian miners believe that could stoke extra demand for Australian coal.

Prices for top quality hard coking coal from Queensland have risen sharply over the past fortnight as a railway disruption slowed the movement of coal from mines to ports while wet conditions also slowed output.

Top quality hard coking coal was fetching $US373 a tonne on February 10, according to Platts; the same commodity was fetching $US325 a tonne on January 19".
AFR
https://www.copyright link/companies/mining/cashed-up-coal-miners-prepare-port-for-low-carbon-future-20230213-p5ck3c?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1676323125-1
(Google "AFR Ker companies mining cashed-up etc." to open up the link)

2. The EU & UK has commenced its total ban on Russian diesel imports from 5.2.23 (not to be confused with their ban on Russian seaborne standard crude oil from 5.12.22).

CNN A. Cooban 6.2.23 said

"Europe’sban on Russia’s dieselarrived painlessly on Sunday.

Although the EU cut off its biggest supplier, diesel futures prices in the bloc fell 1.6% on Monday, amounting to a 20% loss over the past two weeks as demand in the region has waned, and efforts by countries to STOCKPILE (my emphasis) ahead of the ban have started to pay off...

“The expectation was that, when the ban came in, diesel supply into Europe would tighten but, actually, that’s currently not materializing,” Mark Williams, a research director at consultancyWood Mackenzie, told CNN...

Russia accounted for 29% of the region’s total diesel imports last year, data from Rystad Energy shows.

Countries have prepared for the latest banby RAMPING UP (my emphases) imports of Moscow’s diesel in recent months. Europe’s imports were up nearly 19% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the same period the previous year, according to energy data provider Vortexa.

“Those stocks should act as a buffer against the immediate loss of Russian diesel imports,” Williams said.

[Current] Demand down

Demand across the bloc is also weak.

Data from OilX, an oil analytics firm that,shows that diesel demand in Europe was down between the start of November and the end of January compared with the same period a year before.

Analysts attribute the slump partly towarmer-than-usual weatherin the region, where diesel is also used as a heating fuel, and high prices. Despite recent drops, wholesale prices are still 10% above their level the same time last year...

Neil Crosby, a senior analyst at OilX, told CNN that “persistently weak demand data” in Europe had helped it “substantially boost its gasoil stocks over the last few months” ".

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/06/energy/europe-russian-diesel-ban/index.html

The above information supports the theses (re reasons for thermal coal & gas price slumps- which peaked c. 3 & 5 months respectively) that the EU & UK etc. went on a massive buying spree (preparing for high winter demand) of Russian fossil fuels (as they anticipated the future bans on Russia).

This buying spree artificially raised coal & gas prices, whilst the EU & UK built huge stockpiles; & when the EU & UK had a very mild autumn & winter, there was less demand for power for heating. The stockpiles, therefore, remained very high, & they knew it was very unlikley there would be power blackouts- thus, they greatly reduced their coal & gas imports.

Demand reduction= thermal coal & gas prices plummetted.

Buuuuut be aware, very little Russian fossil fuels for the EU, UK, Japan, South Korea from now on- bans on Russia.

As the IEA, & numerous energy experts have stated in the last 3 months (many linked by me in this thread), the real energy crisis will be in the December 2023- March 2024 winter...the stockpiles will have bben greatly depleted.

It can be expected, therefore, IMO, thermal coal prices will again rise strongly later this year, cf today's prices -WHC will benefit.