The ACV hasn't moved the share price for quite a while. Rightly or wrongly the correlation with the cash/revenue is how the market is measuring 3DP and has been for a while.
I think there is logic in delaying the ACV, if it had have been released in tandem with the 4C and there was an increase in ACV the cynicism would have moved into overdrive. Ian has said that the cash and revenue lag will be made up in Q3 & Q4 so he has nailed his reputation to the mast with that forecast. I have no problem with that, however, he will need to provide the market with some visibility of that before the next 4C, end of April.
It would be ideal to give sight of the first 2 months cash/revenue performance, plus any future guidance, with the half yearly in a couple of weeks. Anything positive on that front will override the potentially underwhelming P&L, which is being priced in currently, and lay the groundwork for the ACV. At a minimum the market will need some clarity in March.
The only way the share price is going to shift is if the market can see a positive uptrend in cash/revenue, albeit lumpy, as long as there is positive momentum in correlation with the ACV then it will start to be viewed positively and with far less scepticism.
Obviously some contract gains, especially the Jacobs defence partnership will provide their own impetus.
FWIW I think the company is very good, well managed and has great technology, it's just that cash is King now.
3DP Price at posting:
15.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
