Ther's no doubt that it's a bad result - but in the medium long term nothing has changed. 1. for the moment the flu hype is down - govt around the world are trying to reduce debt and there is lots of vaccine available 2. The rebalancing will probably happen slowly as tamiflu expires and is replaced with relenza. This is a given when considering the news from japan/and now korea with 80 PLus percent tamiflu resistance - i believe that korea has had only one sequence in 2010 calender yr that is not h274y tamiflu resistant. 3.The pandemic may yet take another turn and any ensuing panic buying is likly to be relenza/lani 4. GSK will have stock/prod capacity on hand for once 5. All japans antiviral use this comming winter will be relenza/lani 6. any lost relenza sales in the short term are likely to be picked up by lani in the future at a hopfully bigger royalty and maybe also a bigger per unit price. 7. BTA have 100m cash on hand and no debt 8. Even 100m each up front licensing payment will give BTA a big boost on fundamental net worth of the co.and a rerate 9. If there is blood on the floor in the next couple weeks - i'll be helping to mop it up - it's going to be an opportunity that may not present itself again once lani deal is closed.
BTA Price at posting:
$1.92 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
