Friday afternoon and I'm bored, the following is just made up based on nothing
Let's say POSCO are happy with large scale test what sort of deal would LD likely make? Sell 100% for a bag full of cash or would he hold onto some of the LI for future growth? Personally I believe that past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior so like EME he will not sell 100%.
LAC has a NPV of $5B USD for Thacker Pass and mine cost of $2.5B USD then applying further discounts of 66.66% to the remaining $2.5B USD our little mine may be worth $800m USD. If we retain 10% and get royalties/dividends on that amount, the cash payment would be around $700m USD which is equal to $1B AUD. This amount would be taxed at 30% so the fully franked dividend would be $700m AUD or about $11.66 per share.
These numbers as so rubbery that you could use them as a trampoline, and the NPV must already factor in the mine cost but to get to what I believe is a reasonable position in make believe land where a fully franked dividend of $10 per share is paid out while retaining 10% of the mine with no further outlays.
My reasoning for the above is that they are looking for a PARTNER and not a buyer and regardless of the dividend paid being $2 or $20 per share, I think the above scenario in some form will play out as how do large holder in JRL best cash in the assets? past behavior maybe
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