NWE - Week starting 13th February, page-121

Another interesting week to be a NWE holder! We continue to be tethered to the bloated but receding MIN share price. IMO this was always the key risk to an all scrip offer, MIN were massively over valued right at the time of the Revised Offer - coincidence? I think not. Regardless MIN have committed significant resources to get the Offer over the line - there's no doubt that there's very good reason for that - lots of gas.

I find it interesting that the now MIN controlled NWE will face significant risks, in the words of CE. Doesn't have much faith in the ability of his own team to run NWE, does he? I think the biggest risk for CE is that he cannot get to 80% and provide the CGT relief for those he got to flip - potentially flipping on the basis of getting CGT relief. I would be very surprised if MIN were able to get to the 80% mark and I reckon CE would be sweating bullets.

I would love to know what the next couple of weeks are going to offer us. Depending on CEs desire to get to 80% we might see another revised offer, but I'd think that this would be a last resort for him. I can see that soon we will start to see the impact of the upcoming drill of Lockyer2 on the share price. That might start to lead price away from the linkage to MINs price. I'm very tempted to switch my sentiment from hold to buy, a bit more of a drop and I think that I'm in for some more.

Remember the spud of Lockyer2 is just around the corner.


All in my opinion. Good luck to all holders.