Why IMU is a multi multi bagger, page-11500

I really like the way Imugene competitor Canthera Discovery highlight on their website they are an ideal partner for pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies that are looking for assets to take to the next stage. On their website at cantheradiscovery.com they note “Canthera Discovery boasts a pipeline of innovative, early stage small molecule oncology programs that are backed by data-rich packages along with a track record of commercial success.” For those out of the loop Canthera Discovery is a successful cancer research organisation with a primary focus on small molecule drug discovery and development. Without doubt this up front and realistic approach to bring in pharmaceutical partners has worked in their favour. The company has struck deals with Amplia Therapeutics and Aculeus Therapeutics, whilst in recent years they have not only collaborated with the same combination partners as Imugene, Merck and Pfizer, they have secured deals with them worth potentially $1.3 to $1.4 billion dollars in future revenue.

In early 2016 CANCER RESEARCH TECHNOLOGY (CRT) – the development and commercialisation arm of Cancer Research UK, entered into a license agreement with MSD, known as Merck in the US and Canada, to develop inhibitors of protein arginine methyltransferase 5 (PRMT5). The PRMT5 protein is involved in many cellular processes including the epigenetic control of genes such as p53 – a gene that protects the cell against cancer-causing mutations and is faulty in nine out of ten cancers. High levels of PRMT5 protein are found in mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL), melanoma, lung and breast cancers and are linked to poor survival. At the time the deal included an upfront payment in excess of AUD$21 million and potential payments in excess AUD $0.7 billion

Then in October 2018 Cancer Therapeutics CRC (CTx) announced a two-year research collaboration and a license agreement with Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) wherein Pfizer would gain the rights to two novel pre-clinical cancer programs and CTx in turn would receive a US$14.2 million [AUD$20M] upfront payment, then up to US$460 million [AUD$648M] in development and sales milestones, as well as royalties on product sales if the program reaches commercialisation. The two programs target proteins that are known to play an important role in driving the growth of both solid and blood cancers.Brett Carter, CEO of CTx at the time said “We are very excited to work with a company of Pfizer’s calibre on the progression of these programs. This deal, together with the three prior deals for CTx technology, has the potential to return a billion dollars to Australia.”

So what does all this mean for Imugene and the IMU share price? Well to put it simply Imugene need to hop on their bike and start to promote themselves to the Big Pharma world as Canthera have done so successfully in recent years. In my opinion they need to deliver value for their shareholders, as is their mandate and duty to all those who have invested with them. No one is asking for pots of gold or rivers of revenue. More importantly they are asking Imugene “What do you actually stand for?” Canthera spells it out, then delivers in spades. Imugene often dances behind the curtains, shrouded in a veil of secrecy prized with innuendo and suppositions. Those in tune with cancer research and scientific developments are acutely aware of Imugene’s potential to transform the way cancer treatment is administered in years to come. Imugene has every bit if not more to offer Merck and Pfizer than many in the industry. Many of whom have secured lucrative deals with Big Pharma for smaller market segment products such as rare disease treatments and vaccines in earlier stage development than those at Imugene.

Merck is in bed with Imugene’s successful B cell treatment Her Vaxx. Roche is teaming up with Imugene’s successful B cell treatment PD1 Vaxx. Imugene’s flagship oncolytic virus (OV) Vaxinia has already commenced a combination with Mercks blockbuster drug Keytruda. It’s high time Imugene opened the door and let her shareholders in as Canthera and others have done so many times before. The IMU share price has been haemorrhaging in recent years, at the same time as the company’s fundamentals grow stronger and stronger. Up until now shareholders have stuck behind the Board at Imugene. They have approved salary rises, option deals and further benefits for management and staff. They have accepted Imugene’s decision until now to not link, partner or out licence their successful B Cell vaccines, Oncolytic Viruses and Oncarlytics platform. But patience is wearing thin. Imugene could have secured a deal for their B cell platform late in 2021 given the initial results of Her Vaxx phase 2 and PD1 Vaxx Phase 1 clinical trials. Instead they chose to embark on further “combination” trials in the hope greater rewards would ensue down the track. When investors realised their pay day was now a few years further out they proceeded to abandon ship. Management had moved the goal posts and all bets were off. The Goose had flown and the share price was cooked, at least in the short term. But alas, it’s now 2023, Imugene investors are at the crossroads. Significant trial results are pending, the pipeline has extended, there are many more potential partners in play and all that is left is for the signature, cheque and future to start rolling in. The heat is on, what better time to deliver. My mind drifts back to some oft coined phrases, “Strike while the iron is hot”. Or as my Grandfather used to say, “The successful man is the man who sold too soon”.

No-one is asking Monil Shah to sell the farm. Shareholders aren’t asking management to bring the curtain down halfway through the performance. Everyone is fully invested in what the future potential of Imugene’s drugs promise for the public at large, but the pressure is on to put pen to paper, as Canthera has done on numerous occasions before. Perhaps Imugene is setting much bigger sites than those of Canthera Discovery and the team at CTx management. That’s all well and good, maximising future earnings is a noble cause. But sooner or later you have to perform, and I‘m not talking about the science. “Sometimes a bird in the hand’s worth two in the bush.” It’s all very well to keep setting your sites higher and higher, to continue growing and growing your underlying asset base, to raise capital again and again in the quest for market domination. But as I alluded to in yesterdays article, Big Pharma are sitting there waiting to give you their money. And like Canthera Discovery Big Pharma doors are often open. Take Novartis for example, the pioneers of Car-T and Gene Therapy. You don’t have to scroll too far down the Novartis website before the door to partnerships opens “Novartis is committed to maintaining and growing its diverse network of partnerships.” Oncarlytics anyone? Or steak knives….

Best of luck to ALTH’s.

DYOR- Seek investment advice as and when required - Opinions Only

The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy. (Martin Luther King, Jr.)