My question re royalties % was partly to raise another potential source of valuation upside (not that Neuren doesn't already have a huge number of these).With no information on royalty % most analysts to date have used 10-12% e.g. Peak sales of $500m would mean $50m for Neuren.
However, we already know the Acadia deal was heavily backended - e.g.no significant up-front. So that suggests to me Neuren may have obtained higher royalties as a result. Double digit means at least 10%, but doesn't mean it is 10%.
If it's actually 25% then the DCF or P/E valuation of North America Trof doubles.
In summary, it's worth pointing out that all the valuations of Neuren done to date based on NA Trof (which is pretty much the complete case for all valuations I've seen to date) are at the most conservative end.
Looking forward to finding out the full details on Acadia deal after FDA approval
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