Had a quick look at results to 30/12. Noticed earnings per share (EPS) was about 10 cents so full year result probably around 20 cents.
So if 10% net profit growth, EPS for year ending 30 June 2024 will be about 22 cents.
If I pay $7.00 for a share on 1 July 2023 my expected return for 2023 - 2024 will be 22 cents divided by $7.00 which is 3.1%.
That's a poor short term return so I think the share price will struggle to get over $7.00 until there is a material improvement in EPS.
Think that's why the share price got smashed this week.
They absolutely have to get MVM up to 100% operating capacity to absorb fixed costs into saleable product.
I think the only upside for a2m is that they have good growth opportunities so the medium to longer time horizon looks good.
Think the stock will range trade up to $7 over the next 12 months..
Suggest you all model your own forecasts using above methodology and see what share price you get.
I.e. the share price is simply a ratio of your estimated EPS, and the return you want. i.e. if you want more than a 3.1% return your share price valuation will be lower than $7.
I still hold a2m, I am disappointed, but I am not selling.
GLTASH, We push on.
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$6.30 | $6.31 | $6.17 | $6.785M | 1.089M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 5458 | $6.23 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$6.24 | 13490 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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2 | 5025 | 6.210 |
1 | 484 | 6.200 |
1 | 1000 | 6.150 |
5 | 9029 | 6.100 |
1 | 1652 | 6.050 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
6.260 | 1604 | 1 |
6.280 | 10000 | 1 |
6.300 | 1750 | 1 |
6.320 | 700 | 1 |
6.350 | 2000 | 2 |
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