When I started the thread I intended to do some back of envelope analysis, and I realised I really dont have time to do that.. I now just want to highlight some of the various performance indicators (costs, profits, etc) of other goldies to show that even experienced higher grade producers profits are getting squeezed. They are not making $1000 per oz like they were a few years ago.
RMS was just to show the big increase in AISC last year. (as per red highlighting)
@DazedandconfusedSorry for the downramping...lol. The mining sector has some strong headwinds to face courtesy of inflation. We've only had inflation this severe twice in the last 70 yrs, 1949 - 1952 and 1973 - 1982. Its a big deal.
Imo, we are also facing a global recession, and therefore a stock market/housing crash. Crypto has proven to be a house of cards. There is also $80+ trillion off balance sheet investments in derivatives globally, and if they fall, it could trigger a Lehmann Bros type moment. The UK Gilt LDI problem a few months ago was such an example. The Chinese property market could be next. Or Credit Suisse? The world is awash with so much private and public debt that can never be repaid. If the financial world goes pear shaped, and I think it will soon, people will flock to the "fear metal" for safety. And silver. They always do.
The USD. It is in danger of losing its status, and perhaps in the future there will be no global reserve currency as countries will choose between various currencies and payment systems to enable trade (the BRICs are attempting this right now to avoid the USD completely) . At some point the USD will collapse in value, and gold should rise in response..
But As far as CAI goes, the business model is intact, but there have been various teething problems not all under managements control either. From Elzephyrus's convo with Dave it looks like he is intent on getting back to that November $1590 AISC eventually. So if he can, I hope people see that a $300 increase on the DFS AISC would be exceptionally good in comparison to peers. For producers in Oz, only NCM, CMM, and GOR have AISCs lower than 1590 right now. Most are around $2000+.
Dave just has to prove he can get the ounces out. Guys, dont make me get out the Pantene commercial with Rachel Hunter .
And I'll say it again, Dave has 20M reasons to make sure he gets this show on the road. And ALK have 125M supporting reasons. Neither have ever sold a share. Rightly or wrongly, thats the major reason I am staying put.
