Banter and general comments, page-23223

"I'm all for projecting revenue, but as I stated previously, Spod prices will continue to fall as more options and mines come online."
Agreed across Jan-Jun 2023 there are a number of mines coming online and that may mean more mines than battery precursor and battery plants starting. There are 3 significant projects I'm aware of starting in the next few months - NAL's restart through SYA/PLL, Sigma and of course Core. Some places suggest China plants are destocking and may be in anticipation of ore from these three projects hitting the market within weeks of each other. They may also be playing a game of chicken seeing who blinks first and starts snaring additional volumes by reversing the price decline trend.

If the Spod price falls if more mines than battery plants come online, does it not stand to reason that the reverse applies. If more battery plants come online than mines the price of Spod will rise? The period from July 2023 to June 2024 looks pretty lean for new hard rock developments coming online but I'd heard there are hundreds of battery gigafactories at various stages of development and some of these must be starting over this period. These gigafactories are very expensive but useless hunks of metal and machinery without lithium.

The next wave after those noted above would appear to be LLL and LTR but both those aren't until sometime in 2024 (without delays). Given both are whole of ore flotation projects there's a distinct chance of extended commissioning periods and very little 2024 calendar year product. Without delays Wesfarmers Mt Holland would appear to be a 2nd half of 2024 project. There's a few pre-FID projects like Atlantic, Rocktech, GT1 that might get everything sorted and get product out in the 2nd half of 2024 but the window to deliver product other than DSO by Jun24 has basically closed.

I'm not sure what's happening in the Brine space, but excepting DLE the construction and processing lead times mean this should be predictable to the market insiders.

What other new projects are there that will deliver SC6 before June 2024?
Once NAL, Sigma and Core's demand becomes part of baseline supply there's a distinct chance prices will be increasing.