In your opinion will Russia take Bakhmut in the next month?
I really appreciate your opinion
I think differently to Putinists. I’m not here to make stupid predictions, or to make crazy statements about what will happen - hoping that something eventuates that will vindicate me.
What I will say is that I have faith in whatever the UAF leadership is planning. I believe the strategy at Bakhmut has been to grind up the Russian offensive spearheads - Wagner and VDV units - while Bakhmut itself is manned by a mix of Ukrainian army and territorial units fighting a defensive battle from largely static positions. Ukrainian drone operators and artillery have also been active in grinding up the Wagner and VDV units.
If / when Bakhmut falls, Russia and the on-line propaganda army will proclaim a huge victory - as they did in the aftermath of the taking of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. But it was after Severodonetsk / Lysychansk that Ukraine launched counter-offensives that liberated thousands of square miles of territory.
You see a war of attrition that will remain like this, with a ‘Russian victory’ at Bakhmut as the significant event that looms. I see Russia taking possession of a heap of rubble after having incurred unsustainable costs, and then I see the war entering a new phase over Spring.
