Reading this thread inspired me to go back an resurrect a post on this forum from early April when the OBJ share price was 3.6 cents or thereabouts, and the Shareholder Update was just out:
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Id like to offer my take on the recent OBJ Shareholder Update.
First, the words partners, partner, and partnering appear in the update twelve times by my count, but not one partner is actually named. In fact ten of the references are either explicit references to potential partners or are used generally to reflect potential benefits that may be available to partners in the future.
In my experience, the use of the word partner in the biotech sector normally refers to a company with which one has an explicit agreement to work jointly in the development of a specific technology, and they are ordinarily more than willing to be named.
OBJ does not appear to use the term exclusively in this sense, but seems to include companies with whom OBJ enjoys a normal supplier-customer relationship. Frankly its hard to tell exactly what is meant by OBJs use of this term.
OBJ makes much of the relationship with 3M, but it appears that this relationship is primarily one in which OBJ (and/or its partners) are potential customers for 3M adhesive technologies. The work that 3M is doing under the existing MTA appears to me to be largely an assessment as to whether 3M products can be formulated to support OBJ in the expectation of selling product. As such it appears to be more of a sales and busmarketing effort on the part of 3M than it is a collaboration between equal partners. Perhaps it is notable that the announced reason for the six month extension of the MTA is that pre-existing clinical program commitments as 3M Drug Delivery Systems facility take priority.
After discussing the 3M MTA, OBJ then announces that despite the company's focus on transdermal drug delivery, it will extend its partnering efforts into consumer and homecare markets. And, here again, the partners in this effort are entirely un-named.
Mention is made of a Statement of Intent from an unnamed international FMCG company, but without knowing who the company is, or what products or even the type of products under consideration, no conclusions can be drawn.
Taking the announcement as a whole, it appears to be sheer puffery. It is extraordinarily short on facts and specifics, and relies on hints, innuendo, and clever wordsmithing to give the impression of more than is really there.
I make no judgement as to the bonafides or strength of the OBJ underlying technology. It may work or it may not. I dont care. If the shareholders dont care, why should I?
Given the fact that the shares found blue sky last fall and has been disconnected from reality ever since, this is a stock that is supported by perception and expectation of speculative gain driven by the share price itself and little more.
This may be enough to sustain the share for a while it already has done so. But when the end comes, and it will come, it will be a result of panic selling in a falling market, it wont be related to any matter of the shares fundamentals. They have long since been left behind.
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And a bit later, this:
More to the point, I read the OBJ Shareholder's Update.
Now, I have read a good number of shareholder updates in my day, some good, informative, factual, reliable, some not so. But the OBJ update I read was shocking. There was literally almost nothing there, but it was pompadoured into the appearance of something.
Like I said, I have no view on the technology itself. I simply don't know enough about it to judge.
But I can and do judge that company update, and I judge it harshly. If I held shares in this company, that update would have scared me to death. If that is the best that the company can do to account for itself, I'd be out immediately. I suspect that many OBJ holders read the update exactly as I did.
If I wanted to play roulette, I'd go to a casino. I can't argue with profits, and I won't. But don't kid yourself.
Based on that update, you guys are dancing on air.
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I post this again not to say "I told you so", but that Blind Freddy could have seen this coming. And it won't end until the shareprice is somewhere between nothing and a half a cent.
OBJ Price at posting:
2.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)