5.5c cash backed and 3 mind boggling wells, page-21

Good to see some realism on the CTP thread.

Of course we don't know what the real probability of success in these wells is, but using the estimate of 20% chance in any one well, the odds would be roughly:

51% chance of failure in all three wells.
49% chance of success in at least one well.
10% chance of success in at least two wells.
1% chance of success in all three wells.

So roughly even chance of finding a gusher. You'd have to think that one gusher would easily more than double the share price.

Of course, DYOR and assign your own probability for success to the individual wells... if it's 10% per well, the probability for at least one success drops to 27%. Still looks like pretty good odds to me, considering what that 27% would do to the share price.