CBA TA update, page-400

HC asks to disclose if you own stock.

I do not own stock or have I shorted the stock (comms are way too high on stocks with a high sp) but I do have the option to short the stock from a pre determined price (put options).

Currently all my options on CBA are deep in the money and seeing as size seems important to you @ BIGglesworth my position on CBA moves five figures for every dollar - so I have plenty of 'skin in the game'.

I'm sure there's a few (but not many) readers in here with bigger positions but this 'chicken little' is pretty happy with his size.

So if trying to discredit someone cause they are a 'non-holder' is your thing then all the best to you.

Everything I've posted is fact and I have been posting here for a few months but it's not like one retail poster is going to 'shake any tree' on a multi billion dollar stock anyway.

Fact is Friday did mark the second biggest banking collapse in history.

To think that there's not more fall out to come is ridiculous.

Posters in here claiming that the event is isolated and banks will pop 5-10% when one of the large instos step in to take over SIVB is more damaging than one poster outlining the risks and reviewing similar events in history.

Sure banks may pop 5-10% on the news that SIVB has been taken over but as we can see with the example of JPM taking over Washington Mutual in 2008 the 'pop' was very short lived and it did result in even a Goliath like JPM to wipe 70% of its sp in the proceeding 6mths.

Acc holders below $250k at SIVB look like they will be getting at least a fair amount of their cash Monday and likely the rest soon.

The bigger problem is the fall out from larger companies like Roku and Circle that fall into the uninsured category - valued in the billions - and all of the businesses exposed to them.

Circle backing the crypto 'stable' coin USDC is a wildcard. We know almost all large instos have exposure there but how much is anyone's guess. I'm pretty sure USDC is the 4th biggest crypto and used as collateral across many so that side of the story is a big unknown for me...

A far as banks go.

There was already talk of banks dipping into the 'emergency' funding months ago in the US - such a spike had not been seen since just before the GFC

This piqued my interest and have been watching US banks for a while now and the signs were there - unlike most of the arm chair experts that have just chimed in off the back of SIVB you can see I've been talking bout banks and trading accordingly for months (which is how I have built a significant position on CBA - which is currently a free carry)

*For a quick reference go to BEN threads and you can see I'm not making this stuff up (no one posts there so it's easy to find)

Just two weeks ago I mentioned US banks in particular were setting up for a big sell event - that was after a green session - and that turned out to be a pretty decent call wouldn't you say?

There are two ways I see contagion starting - one will be seen over the ST and the other will be more LT.

Firstly, whether it is or not SIVB is now seen as the canary in the coal mine.

Regional banks are in question in the US and this may spark a proper bank run in the near term as no one will want to end up like SIVB Acc holders.

These same banks may have way more assets and liquidity than SIVB now but if clients start moving cash away from them then you have issues in the coming week but also a secondary risk.

In order to keep depositors or get new business smaller banks will have to make deposit rates more appealing - thus impacting their profitability and with a declining book value things could get tight.

A single bank failing is bad enough but if dominoes start falling then the implications will be way bigger than just the banking sector - but the banking sector will feel some pretty intense heat.

Yes, I hold a pretty significant position on CBA but one retail holder posting on HC is going to do absolutely nothing to price

I've outlined how similar situations have played out in the past and actually said how important it is to DYOR.

Friday was perhaps a blip on the radar but inexperienced investors shouldn't just believe posters sprouting that the second biggest bank collapse in history is 'good for the big 4'

This is not good for anyone but how much impact it has going forward is yet to be seen and how to trade things from here is up to each individual.

Interesting times ahead...